Loss-of-Learning and the Post-Covid Recovery in Low-Income Countries
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Summary:
We analyze the medium-term macroeconomic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lock-down measures on low-income countries. We focus on the impact over the medium-run of the degradation of health and human capital caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, exploring the trade-offs between rebuilding human capital and the recovery of livelihoods and macroeconomic sustainability. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to reflect the structural characteristics of vulnerable low-income countries and to replicate key dimensions of the Covid-19 shock. We show that absent significant and sustained external financing, the persistence of loss-of-learning effects on labor productivity is likely to make the post-Covid recovery more attenuated and more expensive than many contemporary analyses suggest.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2022/025
Subject:
COVID-19 Education Health Human capital Labor Wages
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
February 4, 2022
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400200755/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2022025
Pages:
60
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