Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups

By Zidong An, John C Bluedorn, Gabriele Ciminelli

November 12, 2021

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Zidong An, John C Bluedorn, and Gabriele Ciminelli. Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.

Subject: Cyclical unemployment, Employment, Gender, Labor, Labor force participation, Unemployment, Women

Keywords: Business cycles, Cyclical sensitivities of unemployment, Cyclical unemployment, Demographics, Economy group, Employment, Labor force participation, Okun’s Law, Unemployment, Unemployment, Unemployment across economy, Unemployment gap, Women, Women's unemployment

Publication Details

Pages:

22
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/270
Stock No:

WPIEA2021270
ISBN:

9781616356040
ISSN:

1018-5941

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