IMF Working Papers

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

Author/Editor:

Pragyan Deb ; Davide Furceri ; Daniel Jimenez ; Siddharth Kothari ; Jonathan David Ostry ; Nour Tawk

Publication Date:

October 18, 2021

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Summary:

This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020-June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/247

Subject:

COVID-19 Financial sector policy and analysis Health Infrastructure National accounts Population and demographics Spillovers

Frequency:

regular