An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17
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Summary:
This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2021/216
Subject:
Emerging and frontier financial markets Financial crises Financial markets GDP forecasting Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 International trade National accounts Output gap Production Terms of trade
Notes:
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
August 6, 2021
ISBN/ISSN:
9781513587172/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2021216
Pages:
47
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