Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan African Countries

By Richard I Allen, Taz Chaponda, Lesley Fisher, Rohini Ray

September 11, 2017

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Richard I Allen, Taz Chaponda, Lesley Fisher, and Rohini Ray. Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan African Countries, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2017) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF). This working paper focuses on the performance of these frameworks in six countries–– Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. It assesses the effectiveness of MTBFs in achieving improved fiscal discipline, resource allocation, and certainty of funding, as well as wider economic and social criteria such as poverty reduction and more efficient public investment. In most countries, early successes were not sustained, and budgetary outcomes did not improve, partly for technical reasons, such as poor data and inadequate forecasting methodologies, but also because the reforms were largely supply driven. The paper argues that the development of MTBFs typically falls into four distinct phases. To make the transition from one phase to the next, developing countries should focus on building their capability in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis, and in improving the credibility of the annual budget process.

Subject: Budget planning and preparation, Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Medium-term budget frameworks, Public financial management (PFM)

Keywords: Africa, Budget, Budget framework, Budget office, Budget planning and preparation, Budget preparation process, Budget review process, Case country, Challenge function, Country, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Medium-term budget frameworks, Medium-term expenditure frameworks, PFM system, Program budget, Public financial management, Sub-Saharan Africa, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

37
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2017/203
Stock No:

WPIEA2017203
ISBN:

9781484314203
ISSN:

1018-5941

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