Structural Models in Real Time

Author/Editor:

Kevin Clinton ; Marianne Johnson ; Jaromir Benes ; Douglas Laxton ; Troy D Matheson

Publication Date:

March 1, 2010

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that predictions can be up-weighted or down-weighted on a case-by-case basis. We illustrate the approach using a small quarterly structural and real-time data for the United States.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/056

Subject:

Consumer price indexes Economic forecasting Inflation Output gap Unemployment rate

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2010

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451963625/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2010056

Pages:

35

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