Restoring Debt Sustainability After Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix

Author/Editor:

Emanuele Baldacci ; Sanjeev Gupta ; Carlos Mulas-Granados

Publication Date:

October 1, 2010

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper analyzes the experience of 99 advanced and developing economies in restoring fiscal sustainability during 1980 - 2008 after banking crises, which led to large accumulation of public debt. It finds that successful debt reductions have relied chiefly on generation of large primary surpluses in post-crisis years through current expenditure cuts. These savings have been accompanied by growth-promoting measures and a supportive monetary policy stance. While these results are consistent with the existing literature, the paper finds that revenue-raising measures increased the likelihood of successful consolidation in countries that faced large adjustment needs after the crisis. This reflects the fall in effectiveness of spending cuts when deficit reduction needs are large independent of initial tax ratios.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/232

Subject:

Banking crises Debt management Debt reduction Fiscal consolidation Public debt

English

Publication Date:

October 1, 2010

ISBN/ISSN:

9781455209323/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2010232

Pages:

35

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