Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Model-based Approach

December 26, 2013

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Lorenzo Forni, and Massimiliano Pisani. Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Model-based Approach, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2013) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

We assess the macroeconomic effects of a sovereign restructuring in a small economy belonging to a monetary union by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium model. In line with the empirical evidence, we make the following three key assumptions. First, sovereign debt is held by domestic agents and by agents in the rest of the monetary union. Second, after the restructuring the sovereign borrowing rate increases and its increase is fully transmitted to the borrowing rate paid by the domestic agents. Third, the government cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign agents when restructuring. We show that the macroeconomic effects of the restructuring depend on: (a) the share of sovereign bonds held by residents in the country as compared to that held by foreign residents, (b) the increase in the spread paid by domestic agents and (c) its net foreign asset position at the moment of the restructuring. Our results also suggest that the sovereign restructuring implies persistent reductions of output, consumption and investment, that can be large, in particular if the share of public debt held domestically is large, the private foreign debt is high and the spread paid by the government and the households does increase.

Subject: External debt, Foreign currency exposure, Monetary unions, Public debt, Sovereign bonds

Keywords: Monetary union, Private sector, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

42
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2013/269
Stock No:

WPIEA2013269
ISBN:

9781484333754
ISSN:

1018-5941

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