How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?

Author/Editor:

Heiko Hesse ; Ferhan Salman ; Christian Schmieder

Publication Date:

June 12, 2014

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

One of the challenges of financial stability analysis and bank stress testing is how to establish scenarios with meaningful macro-financial linkages, i.e., taking into account spillover effects and other forms of contagion. We come up with an approach to simulate the potential impact of spillover effects based on the “traditional” design of macro-economic stress tests. Specifically, we examine spillover effects observed during the financial crisis and simulate their impact on banks’ liquidity and capital positions. The outcome suggests that spillover effects have a highly non-linear impact on bank soundness, both in terms of liquidity and solvency.

Series:

Working Paper No. 14/103

Subject:

Econometric models Europe Financial contagion Financial systems Regression analysis Spillovers Stress testing

English

Publication Date:

June 12, 2014

ISBN/ISSN:

9781498379083/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2014103

Format:

Paper

Pages:

34

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org