Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

Author/Editor:

Tamim Bayoumi ; Andrew J Swiston

Publication Date:

July 1, 2007

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of small industrial countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This paper also calculates the standard errors of impulse-response functions including uncertainty over the proper Cholesky ordering. Extensions adding real net exports, commodity prices, and financial variables indicate that financial effects dominate spillovers. The results by subperiod underline the importance of the great moderation in U.S. output fluctuations and associated financial stability in lowering output volatility elsewhere.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2007/182

Subject:

Bond yields Commodity prices Short term interest rates Spillovers Vector autoregression

English

Publication Date:

July 1, 2007

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451867466/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2007182

Pages:

52

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