Food Prices and Political Instability

Author/Editor:

Rabah Arezki ; Markus Bruckner

Publication Date:

March 1, 2011

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict. Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries' social and political stability.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2011/062

Subject:

Estimation techniques Food prices Inflation Personal income Price indexes

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2011

ISBN/ISSN:

9781455221066/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2011062

Pages:

22

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