Fiscal Reaction Functions in the CFA Zone: An Analytical Perspective

Author/Editor:

Oral Williams ; Olumuyiwa S Adedeji

Publication Date:

October 1, 2007

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The stance of fiscal policy in CEMAC and WAEMU is strongly influenced by fiscal effort in the previous period. This persistence underscores the risks of a procyclical fiscal policy stance, given these countries' high degree of dependence on primary commodities and exposure to terms of trade shocks. This paper finds that the coefficient of the lagged debt stock was significant and positive, consistent with the theory that higher levels of debt warrant greater fiscal effort. Various measures of economic performance, as captured by economic growth and per capita GDP, openness, and the terms of trade were also found to be important factors in explaining fiscal performance. As fiscal performance seems to be strongly affected by both real GDP growth and terms of trade fluctuations, there appears to be a need to develop supplementary fiscal-related criteria that take into account the influence of output and the terms of trade.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2007/232

Subject:

Fiscal policy Fiscal stance Monetary unions Public debt Terms of trade

English

Publication Date:

October 1, 2007

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451867961/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2007232

Pages:

19

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