Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index

Author/Editor:

Era Dabla-Norris ; Yasemin Bal Gunduz

Publication Date:

November 2, 2012

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis. 

Series:

Working Paper No. 2012/264

Subject:

Currency markets Exchange rate arrangements Export prices Exports Financial crises Financial markets Foreign exchange International trade Prices

English

Publication Date:

November 2, 2012

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475528510/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2012264

Pages:

41

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