Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies

By Jordi Prat, Leandro Medina, Alun H. Thomas

February 1, 2010

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Jordi Prat, Leandro Medina, and Alun H. Thomas Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2010) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or ?norms?) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. We find that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are similar to those identified by the CGER using a sample that also comprises advanced economies. However, the fiscal balance has a considerably stronger impact on current account norms for emerging markets. This paper also offers estimates for the equilibrium current account balances of eleven smaller emerging market economies that are not currently included in the country sample used by the CGER.

Subject: Current account, Current account balance, Fiscal stance, Oil, Real exchange rates

Keywords: Current account norm, Estimate, GDP, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

22
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/043
Stock No:

WPIEA2010043
ISBN:

9781451962994
ISSN:

1018-5941

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