China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

Author/Editor:

Shaun K. Roache

Publication Date:

May 1, 2012

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting inventory demand) have no effect on commodity prices. China’s impact on world commodity markets is rising but, perhaps surprisingly, remains smaller than that of the United States. This is mainly due to the dynamics of real activity growth shocks in the U.S, which tend to be more persistent and have larger effects on the rest of the world.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2012/115

Subject:

Commodities Commodity markets Commodity prices Consumption Financial markets Industrial production National accounts Prices Production

English

Publication Date:

May 1, 2012

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475503364/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2012115

Pages:

24

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