A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2012/011
Subject:
Credit default swap Debt sustainability analysis External debt Fiscal policy Fiscal risks Fiscal stance Money Public debt Public financial management (PFM)
Frequency:
Monthly
English
Publication Date:
January 1, 2012
ISBN/ISSN:
9781463931162/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2012011
Pages:
29
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