A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon

April 1, 2008

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Format: Chicago

E. H. Gardner, and Julian Di Giovanni. A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2008) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.

Subject: Debt sustainability analysis, Deposit rates, Fiscal policy, Public debt, Real interest rates

Keywords: Cost of funds, Debt ratio, Eurobond rate, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

23
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2008/097
Stock No:

WPIEA2008097
ISBN:

9781451869583
ISSN:

1018-5941

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