A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices
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Summary:
Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper proposes useful transformation/restrictions to Bahra’s original formulation for achieving economically sensible outcomes. In addition, the paper compares the statistical properties of the estimated RNPs among major asset classes, including commodities, the S&P 500, the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the US 10-year Treasury Note. Finally, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the multi-lognormal approach outperforms the double-lognormal approach.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2010/181
Subject:
English
Publication Date:
August 1, 2010
ISBN/ISSN:
9781455202157/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2010181
Pages:
31
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