The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study

March 1, 1998

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Carlo Cottarelli. The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1998) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper explains inflation performance in a sample of industrial and transition economies by looking at policymakers’ incentives to inflate the economy, and the perceived costs of disinflation. It finds a significant effect of fiscal deficits on inflation, particularly (but not exclusively) in countries where the government securities market is not well developed. Other factors with significant effect on inflation include relative price changes, central bank independence, the exchange rate regime, and the degree of price liberalization; there is only limited evidence that other structural factors, such as those influencing the natural rate of unemployment, have a significant effect on inflation.

Subject: Central bank autonomy, Central banks, Exchange rate arrangements, Financial institutions, Foreign exchange, Government securities, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Unemployment rate

Keywords: Central bank autonomy, Eastern Europe, Economy, Exchange rate arrangements, Fiscal policy, FSU economy, Government securities, Government securities market, Inflation, Inflation expectation, Inflation performance, Panel data, Panel data estimate, Price liberalization, Transition economy, Unemployment rate, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

29
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1998/023
Stock No:

WPIEA0231998
ISBN:

9781451844016
ISSN:

1018-5941

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