Technology and Epidemics

Author/Editor:

Alberto Chong ; Luisa Zanforlin

Publication Date:

September 1, 1999

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.

Series:

Working Paper No. 1999/125

Subject:

Econometric analysis Emerging technologies Estimation techniques Financial institutions Imports International trade Stocks Technology

English

Publication Date:

September 1, 1999

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451854800/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1251999

Pages:

33

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