Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Author/Editor:

Zhiwei Zhang

Publication Date:

November 1, 2001

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes a duration variable to capture the changes in the frequency of attacks, which might be an important factor influencing investors' expectations. The empirical results show that the ACH model explains the crisis far better than the Probit model. The duration variable is highly significant while most fundamentals are not. The contagion effect is tested and accepted under the ACH specification.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2001/189

Subject:

Currencies Econometric analysis Exchange rate adjustments Exchange rates Foreign exchange Money Probit models Real exchange rates

English

Publication Date:

November 1, 2001

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451859614/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1892001

Pages:

20

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