Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics

December 1, 1994

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Format: Chicago

Xiaoning Gong. Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1994) accessed December 4, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The quality of the estimated data in DOTS depends on the availability and accuracy of direction of trade reports and the estimation methodology. Because of the low coverage of monthly reporting, the estimating procedure plays a role of increased importance. This study, however, reveals two deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology: The information on total trade in IFS is not efficiently used, and the assumed uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factor is inappropriate. Accuracy would be improved if IFS total trade were allocated, when available, according to the shares of total trade derived from partner data; and the uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factors were replaced by adjustment factors derived from historical data.

Subject: Direction of trade, Exports, Imports, International trade, Trade balance

Keywords: Correlation coefficient, Coverage ratio, Data, Direction of trade, Estimation methodology, Exports, Imports, Trade, Trade balance, Trade data, Trade statistics, Trade structure, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

32
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1994/142
Stock No:

WPIEA1421994
ISBN:

9781451927467
ISSN:

1018-5941

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