How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts : Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth

Author/Editor:

Prakash Loungani

Publication Date:

April 1, 2000

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions? (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased? (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations? (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy? Two key results emerge. First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.

Series:

Working Paper No. 00/77

Subject:

Developed countries Developing countries Economic growth Economic indicators Economic recession Gross national product Transition economies World Economic Outlook

English

Publication Date:

April 1, 2000

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451849981/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0772000

Format:

Paper

Pages:

32

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