Are Mexican Business Cycles Asymmetrical?
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
We use the regime-switching econometric models in Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994) to study business cycles in Mexico. In particular, we characterize the ups and downs of economic activity in Mexico. As a proxy for economic activity, we use the Mexican quarterly industrial production index from the second quarter of 1972 to the third quarter of 1999. We allow the transition probabilities driving changes in economic activity to be a function of fiscal, financial, and external sector indicators. Our results show that recessions in Mexico are deeper and shorter than expansions.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2002/150
Subject:
Business cycles Cyclical indicators Economic growth Financial services Foreign exchange Industrial production Production Real exchange rates Real interest rates
English
Publication Date:
September 1, 2002
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451856972/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA1502002
Pages:
33
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