An Extended Scenario and Adjustment Model for Developing Countries

By Hossein Samiei, Manmohan S. Kumar, Sheila Bassett

September 1, 1993

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Hossein Samiei, Manmohan S. Kumar, and Sheila Bassett. An Extended Scenario and Adjustment Model for Developing Countries, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1993) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper discusses three important extensions to the developing country scenario and adjustment model used in the World Economic Outlook exercises. First, the model is augmented to include fiscal and monetary sectors and now explicitly captures links among government policy, investment, output and inflation. Second, the external sector is modified to allow domestic demand factors to influence imports, as well as allowing flexibility in the financing of imports. Third, the model system is extended to the group of net-creditor countries, and for the oil exporters within this group, oil exports are modeled separately. The revised model is estimated for each of the 95 developing countries and parameter estimates for each of the main equations are presented. The paper also reports the results of four simulation exercises to illustrate how the new model system may be used to quantify the effects of changes in domestic policies and in the external environment.

Subject: Balance of payments, Current account balance, Exports, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Imports, International trade, Monetary base, Money

Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, Broad money, Creditor country, Current account balance, Debt ratio, Europe, Export volume, Exports, Fiscal stance, GDP deflator, Import volume, Imports, Middle East, Monetary base, Net debtor countries, Oil export, Reserve import ratio, Western Hemisphere, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

60
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1993/073
Stock No:

WPIEA0731993
ISBN:

9781451849387
ISSN:

1018-5941

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