Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

April 2005

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Contents

Preface
Chapter I Overview
Chapter II Recent Developments and Short-Term Prospects
  Overview of Developments in 2004
  Prospects for 2005
Chapter III Responding to Exogenous Shocks
  Impact of Declining World Cotton Prices
  Impact of Removal of Textile Quotas
  What Are the Policy Options?
 
Chapter IV Sustaining Growth in Africa
  Explaining Differences in Growth Performance
  Growth Accelerations
  Policies, Institutions, and Growth in SSA
  Conclusions
Chapter V Making Regional Trade Arrangements More Effective In Africa
  The Effects of African Trade Arrangements
  What Can Be Done?
  Appendix (Tables A1-A9)
  Statistical Appendix
  Explanatory Notes
  List of Statistical Appendix Tables
References
List of AFR Publications 2003-05
Boxes
  2.1   Transparency in Oil Sector Operations in Africa
  2.2   Pass-Through of Oil Price Increases to Domestic Prices
  2.3   Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Poor in Sub-Saharan Africa
  2.4   South Africa-Structural and Social Reforms
  3.1   The Impact of Quota Removal on Mauritius
  4.1   Growth Experiences: Uganda, The Gambia, and Nigeria
  5.1   Regional Trade Integration With and Without RTAs: The EU and East Asia
Tables
  2.1   Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Selected Indicators
  3.1   Share of Textiles and Clothing in Total Merchandise Exports and Share of U.S. and EU Markets in Total Exports,
2000-03
  4.1   Acceleration Start Dates and Per Capita Growth rates for 1980s and 1990s
  4.2   Differences Between Sample Averages for Acceleration Episodes: Own Past and Non-Episodes
  4.3   Differences Between Sample Averages: Sustained and Unsustained Accelerations
  A1   Cotton Exports in Selected SSA Countries
  A2   Subgroups of Countries
  A3   Real GDP Per Capita Growth Performance Classification
  A4   Real Per Capita Growth, Cross Fixed Capital Formation and Total Factor Productivity Growth
  A5   Forgone Growth in Africa Relative to Other Regions
  A6   Relative Impact of Robust Variables on Growth
  A7   Changes in Real GDP Growth and Lagged Deficit Change
  A8   Subperiod Averages for Budget Balance, Growth, and Domestic and Foreign Financing
  A9   Country Classification by Financial Development and Growth Performance
Figures
  2.1   Inflation
  2.2   Commodity Prices
  2.3   Oil Importers: Change in Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2004
  2.4   Oil Importers: Change in Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2004
  2.5   Oil Importers: Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rates and Reserves
  3.1   World Cotton Prices, Monthy Averages
  3.2   World Cotton Production
  3.3   World Cotton Production, Area Cultivated, and Average Yields
  3.4   Sub-Saharan Africa: Textile and Clothing Exports
  4.1   Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Per Capita Growth
  4.2   Sub-Saharan Africa: Annual Inflation Rate
  4.3   Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Balance
  4.4   Sub-Saharan Africa: Trade Openness for the Fast, Medium and Slow Growers of the 1990s
  4.5   Tariffs and TFP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 1997-2003
  4.6   Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Spending on Education and Health
  4.7   Financial Development of Sub-Saharan African Countries Classified by Growth
  4.8   Evolution of Economic and Political Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa
  4.9   Objective Measures of Economic Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2004
  5.1   Intra-Africa Trade in Total African Trade and Africa's Share in World Trade
  5.2   Foreign Direct Investment: Net Inflows in Africa




Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa
 

WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
Regional Economic Outlook
Sub-Saharan Africa

©2005 International Monetary Fund
Français


This first, annual issue of Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes economic, trade, and institutional issues in 2004, and prospects in 2005, for the 42 countries covered by the African Department (for data reasons, Eritrea and Liberia are excluded). Topics examined include responses to exogenous shocks, growth performance and growth-enhancing policies, and the effectiveness of regional trade arrangements. Detailed aggregate and country data (as of February 24, 2005) are provided in the appendix.

Ordering Information
or
View Full Text (1321 kb PDF file) with the Adobe Acrobat Reader

Disclaimer



Contents

Preface
Chapter I Overview
Chapter II Recent Developments and Short-Term Prospects
  Overview of Developments in 2004
  Prospects for 2005
Chapter III Responding to Exogenous Shocks
  Impact of Declining World Cotton Prices
  Impact of Removal of Textile Quotas
  What Are the Policy Options?
 
Chapter IV Sustaining Growth in Africa
  Explaining Differences in Growth Performance
  Growth Accelerations
  Policies, Institutions, and Growth in SSA
  Conclusions
Chapter V Making Regional Trade Arrangements More Effective In Africa
  The Effects of African Trade Arrangements
  What Can Be Done?
  Appendix (Tables A1-A9)
  Statistical Appendix
  Explanatory Notes
  List of Statistical Appendix Tables
References
List of AFR Publications 2003-05
Boxes
  2.1   Transparency in Oil Sector Operations in Africa
  2.2   Pass-Through of Oil Price Increases to Domestic Prices
  2.3   Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Poor in Sub-Saharan Africa
  2.4   South Africa-Structural and Social Reforms
  3.1   The Impact of Quota Removal on Mauritius
  4.1   Growth Experiences: Uganda, The Gambia, and Nigeria
  5.1   Regional Trade Integration With and Without RTAs: The EU and East Asia
Tables
  2.1   Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Selected Indicators
  3.1   Share of Textiles and Clothing in Total Merchandise Exports and Share of U.S. and EU Markets in Total Exports,
2000-03
  4.1   Acceleration Start Dates and Per Capita Growth rates for 1980s and 1990s
  4.2   Differences Between Sample Averages for Acceleration Episodes: Own Past and Non-Episodes
  4.3   Differences Between Sample Averages: Sustained and Unsustained Accelerations
  A1   Cotton Exports in Selected SSA Countries
  A2   Subgroups of Countries
  A3   Real GDP Per Capita Growth Performance Classification
  A4   Real Per Capita Growth, Cross Fixed Capital Formation and Total Factor Productivity Growth
  A5   Forgone Growth in Africa Relative to Other Regions
  A6   Relative Impact of Robust Variables on Growth
  A7   Changes in Real GDP Growth and Lagged Deficit Change
  A8   Subperiod Averages for Budget Balance, Growth, and Domestic and Foreign Financing
  A9   Country Classification by Financial Development and Growth Performance
Figures
  2.1   Inflation
  2.2   Commodity Prices
  2.3   Oil Importers: Change in Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2004
  2.4   Oil Importers: Change in Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2004
  2.5   Oil Importers: Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rates and Reserves
  3.1   World Cotton Prices, Monthy Averages
  3.2   World Cotton Production
  3.3   World Cotton Production, Area Cultivated, and Average Yields
  3.4   Sub-Saharan Africa: Textile and Clothing Exports
  4.1   Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Per Capita Growth
  4.2   Sub-Saharan Africa: Annual Inflation Rate
  4.3   Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Balance
  4.4   Sub-Saharan Africa: Trade Openness for the Fast, Medium and Slow Growers of the 1990s
  4.5   Tariffs and TFP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 1997-2003
  4.6   Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Spending on Education and Health
  4.7   Financial Development of Sub-Saharan African Countries Classified by Growth
  4.8   Evolution of Economic and Political Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa
  4.9   Objective Measures of Economic Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2004
  5.1   Intra-Africa Trade in Total African Trade and Africa's Share in World Trade
  5.2   Foreign Direct Investment: Net Inflows in Africa