Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook:Middle East and Central Asia
May 2008
The Middle East and Central Asia region grew at 6.5 percent in 2007, marking its best five-year performance over the past 30 years. So far, the turmoil in international financial markets has had a limited impact on the region, and the short-term outlook remains very favorable. The report reviews recent economic developments, assesses the outlook for the coming year, and discusses key policy challenges. In addition, it takes a closer look at both regional topics--such as the rise in inflation in the GCC countries, intraregional capital flows, developments in oil markets, developments in real estate prices, and sovereign wealth funds--and country reviews for Algeria, Georgia, Iraq, and West Bank and Gaza. |
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Contents
| Assumptions and Conventions | |
| Recent Macroeconomic Developments | |
| Highlights | |
| Recent Economic Developments | |
| Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges | |
| Economic Outlook | |
| World economic outlook | |
| Outlook for the MCD region | |
| Policy Challenges | |
| Statistical Appendix | |
| Data and Conventions | |
| Boxes | |
| 1 | Georgia: Successful Reforms Since the Rose Revolution |
| 2 | GCC Capital Flows to MENA Emerging Market Countries |
| 3 | Iraq: Encouraging Economic Performance in 2007 |
| 4 | The Rise in Inflation in the GCC Countries |
| 5 | Algeria’s Experience with Managing Hydrocarbon Wealth |
| 6 | Oil Income: What Is Being Done with It? |
| 7 | Oil Prices: Fundamentals or Speculation? |
| 8 | West Bank and Gaza: The Road to Recovery |
| 9 | Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Spotlight |
| 10 | Real Estate Prices in the MCD Region |
| Figures | |
| 1 | Global Real GDP Growth |
| 2 | Real GDP Growth in the MCD Region |
| 3 | Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth in Oil Exporters, 2007 |
| 4 | Growth in Emerging Markets |
| 5a | Consumer Price Inflation: Country Aggregates |
| 5b | Consumer Price Inflation: Individual Countries |
| 6 | Nominal Effective Exchange Rates |
| 7 | Real Effective Exchange Rates |
| 8a | Government Fiscal Balance: Country Aggregates |
| 8b | Government Fiscal Balance: Individual Countries |
| 9 | Total Government Debt |
| 10 | Government Expenditure in Oil Exporters |
| 11 | Credit to the Private Sector |
| 12 | Money and Credit to the Private Sector in Low-Income Countries |
| 13a | External Current Account Balance: Country Aggregates |
| 13b | External Current Account Balance: Individual Countries |
| 14 | Gross Official Reserves |
| 15 | Stock Market Indices in Selected Countries |
| 16 | Sovereign Spreads in Selected Countries |
| 17 | Global Outlook |
| 18 | International Commodity Prices |
| 19 | Brent Crude Oil Prices |
| 20 | Global Growth Forecast |
| Statistical Appendix Tables | |
| 1 | Real GDP Growth |
| 2 | Nominal GDP |
| 3 | GDP at Purchasing-Power-Parity Prices |
| 4 | Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth for Oil Exporters |
| 5 | Crude Oil Production and Exports |
| 6 | Consumer Price Inflation |
| 7 | Broad Money Growth |
| 8 | Central Government Fiscal Balance |
| 9 | Central Government Total Revenue Excluding Grants |
| 10 | Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance |
| 11 | Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue |
| 12 | Central Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending |
| 13 | Total Government Debt |
| 14 | Exports of Goods and Services |
| 15 | Imports of Goods and Services |
| 16 | Current Account Balance (in billions of U.S. dollars) |
| 17 | Current Account Balance (in percent of GDP) |
| 18 | Real Effective Exchange Rates |
| 19 | Gross Official Reserves |
| 20 | Total Gross External Debt |