IMF Staff Papers

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, Special Issue, IMF Conference in Honor of Michael Mussa

Publication Date:

August 30, 2005

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Summary:

This paper focuses on expectations for the American economy focused on the likelihood of secular stagnation, which continued to be debated throughout the post-war period. Concerns rose during the late 1960s and early 1970s about rapid population growth smothering the potential for economic growth in developing countries were contradicted when, during the mid- and late-1970s, fertility rates began to decline rapidly. In policy-oriented institutions (and in most businesses and individual decision making), policymaking decisions are often guided by projections and forward-looking indicators. The case of Michael Mussa has been one of great anticipation, and of great accomplishment, and all the early optimistic forecasts about him have turned out to be correct. Within the sphere of economics, undoubtedly the most famous and widely used forecast—one, incidentally, that thus far has often been incorrect—is that based on the Malthusian doctrine of the relationship between resources and population.

Series:

IMF Staff Papers No. 2005/005

Subject:

Asset prices Currencies Exchange rate arrangements Financial institutions Financial integration Financial markets Financial sector policy and analysis Foreign exchange Insurance Money Moral hazard Prices

Notes:

Issues from 1998 onward are available for free online

Frequency:

Quarterly