Global Financial Stability Report
Market Developments and Issues
December 2002
©2002 International Monetary Fund
Ordering Information
The Global Financial Stability Report provides quarterly assessments of global financial markets and addresses emerging market financing in a global context. |
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Contents | ||
Preface | ||
Chapter I. | Overview: Key Developments and Sources of Financial Market Risks (366KB pdf file) | |
Key Developments | ||
Sources of Risk | ||
Measures to Promote Financial Stability | ||
Development of Local Securities Markets: Emerging Derivatives Markets |
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Chapter II. | Key Developments and Sources of Financial Risk in the Major Financial Centers (306KB pdf file) | |
Key Developments | ||
The Capacity of Key Sectors to Intermediate and Bear Financial Risks | ||
References | ||
Chapter III. | Emerging Market Developments and Finance (470KB pdf file) | |
Emerging Market Financing Overview | ||
Emerging Bond Markets | ||
Performance and Spread Developments | ||
Regional Developments | ||
Investor Positioning | ||
Primary Bond Market Developments | ||
Emerging Equity Markets | ||
Syndicated Lending | ||
Emerging Market Foreign Exchange | ||
Key Risks to Emerging Market Finance | ||
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References | |
Chapter IV. | Selected topic: The Role of Financial Derivatives in Emerging Markets (289KB pdf file) | |
Derivatives in Emerging Market Economies | ||
Local Derivatives Markets and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies | ||
The Role of Derivatives in Emerging Market Crises | ||
Concluding Remarks | ||
References | ||
Boxes | ||
3.1 | Risk Retrenchment and Risk Indicators | |
3.2 | Local Debt Structure and Vulnerability to Volatile Debt Dynamics | |
3.3 | Recovery Rates from Defaulted Debt | |
3.4 | Collective Action Clauses | |
3.5 | Emerging Market Bond Developments Since the End of September | |
4.1 | The Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros of Sao Paulo | |
4.2 | Credit Default Swap Spreads in Emerging Markets | |
Tables | ||
1.1 | Financial Market Data | |
2.1 | United States: Sectoral Balance Sheets | |
2.2 | Europe: Sectoral Balance Sheets 19 | |
2.3 | Europe: Selected Financial Indicators for the 20 Largest Banking Groups, 2001 | |
2.4 | Japan: Sectoral Balance Sheets | |
3.1 | Emerging Market Financing Overview | |
3.2 | EMBI+ Performance, 2002 | |
3.3 | Equity Market Performance, 2002 | |
3.4 | Sector and Country Performance | |
4.1 | Notional Amounts Outstanding of the Over-the-Counter and Exchange-Traded Derivatives | |
4.2 | Average Daily Turnover in the Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets | |
4.3 | Exchange-Traded Options and Futures Contract Trading Volume, 2001 | |
Figures | ||
2.1 | Stock Prices in Selected Major Industrial Countries | |
2.2 | United States, Euro Area, and Japan: Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads | |
2.3 | Historical Volatility: Major Stock Market Indexes | |
2.4 | Currency Derivatives | |
2.5 | United States: Debt Outstanding by Sector | |
2.6 | U.S. and European Banking Systems: Return on Equity | |
3.1 | Emerging Market Financing | |
3.2 | Cumulative Gross Annual Issuance of Bonds, Loans, and Equity | |
3.3 | Sovereign Spreads | |
3.4 | EMBI+ Volatility | |
3.5 | Average Correlation of Emerging Debt Markets | |
3.6 | Brazil | |
3.7 | Real/U.S. Dollar 10-Day Rolling Volatility | |
3.8 | On-Shore Dollar Curve | |
3.9 | Average Correlations of the Returns on Emerging Equity Market Indices | |
3.10 | Net Foreign Equity Purchases and the Kospi | |
3.11 | Equity Placements | |
3.12 | Forward Looking Price-Earnings Ratio | |
3.13 | Twelve-Month Forward Earnings Growth, Emerging Markets Free and S&P 500 | |
3.14 | Syndicated Loan Commitments | |
3.15 | Shares of Total Issuance | |
3.16 | Loan-Weighted Interest Margin 48 | |
3.17 | Emerging Market Currencies: Historical Volatilities | |
3.18 | Latin American Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar | |
3.19 | Latin American Currencies: Trade-Weighted Indices and Volatility | |
3.20 | Asian Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar | |
3.21 | Volatility of Asian Currencies: Bilaterally and Trade-Weighted | |
4.1 | Korea: Three-Year Government Bond and Bond Futures | |
4.2 | Kospi 200 Index Futures: Cumulative Net Purchases | |
4.3 | Brazil: International Bond and Loan Issuance and Derivatives Trading Volume |