IMF How To Notes

How to Assess Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises: Benchmarking and Stress Testing

Author/Editor:

Anja Baum ; Paulo A Medas ; Alberto Soler ; Mouhamadou Sy

Publication Date:

August 19, 2021

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

The size and operation of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can imply significant risks for governments. SOEs are present in virtually every country in the world and are major players in domestic economies and in global markets. In some countries, they number in the thousands and are owned by national or subnational governments. SOEs are among the largest corporations in some advanced economies and comprise a third or more of the largest firms in several emerging markets. Many operate with systematic losses and carry significant liabilities. If SOEs face adverse shocks and financial distress they can impact the government budget or balance sheet through numerous transmission channels. This How to Note describes a newly developed SOE risk assessment tool to help country authorities and IMF country teams. The analysis can provide inputs for annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning. This includes providing estimates of possible transfers to and from SOEs to the budget and possible financing needs. The note outlines the main steps and elements of the template to assess fiscal risks for governments from individual SOEs. The first step is to collect financial information on SOEs and their relation to the government budget, and to provide a benchmark against other SOEs in similar sectors. A second step is to do a forward-looking analysis based on baseline forecasts and stress scenarios, to identify and analyze possible risks and their impact on government accounts.

Series:

How-To Note No 2021/009

Subject:

Currencies Economic sectors Financial crises Financial sector policy and analysis Financial statements Fiscal risks Money Public enterprises Public financial management (PFM) Stress testing

Frequency:

occasional