Country Reports
2022
December 2, 2022
Paraguay: Request for a Two-Year Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Paraguay
Description: Paraguay continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic amidst simultaneous shocks that would lead to flat GDP growth and inflation above the IT range this year. Those conditions are reflected in rising social demands within a politicized environment before the 2023 general elections. The outlook remains favorable, and the authorities are pursuing policies to follow a stronger, more resilient, and inclusive development path. On the back of very positive experiences with Fund-supported programs, the authorities are requesting approval of a two-year program supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to underpin the implementation of needed structural reforms.
December 2, 2022
Mozambique: First Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Mozambique
Description: The economic recovery is strengthening, as a successful vaccination campaign and recovery from COVID-related restrictions dominate headwinds from the worsening international economic environment. Growth is projected at 3.8 percent this year, rising to 5 percent in 2023 as the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) project enters production. Food and fuel prices have pushed inflation to double digits. Monetary policy has been proactive, including a further 200bps increase in the policy rate in September 2022. Credit conditions remain tight, while financial sector buffers built before the pandemic have underpinned banking sector resilience. Fiscal outcomes have been in line with expectations. The current account deficit is lower than forecast (though it still widens due to LNG infrastructure imports), as exports have been stronger than anticipated. International reserves have declined faster than anticipated due to higher imported fuel prices.
December 1, 2022
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Technical Assistance Report-Review of Regulations to New Securities Act and Investment Funds Act
Description: At the request of the Eastern Caribbean Securities Regulatory Commission (ECSRC), a Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department mission conducted a review of a draft version of the new Investment Funds Regulations (IFR) and Securities Regulations (SR) form May 20–June 30, 2022. The two sets of regulations are a key part of the new regime to govern the capital markets in the member territories of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU).
December 1, 2022
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report on Government Finance Statistics Mission (April 19-May 6, 2022)
Description: This technical assistance (TA) mission on Government Finance Statistics was conducted during April 19– May 6, 2022. The main purpose of the mission was to review the progress made by the authorities in implementing previous TA recommendations and provide further support to improve fiscal data compilation and dissemination in line with international standards set out in the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014.
November 29, 2022
Republic of North Macedonia: Request for an Arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of North Macedonia
Description: North Macedonia's economy has been hit by two large external shocks. While recovering from the pandemic, the outlook deteriorated again following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sharply rising energy and food prices. Given high dependence on energy imports, the external financing need has increased, while at the same time, global financial conditions have tightened, increasing the cost of market financing.
November 23, 2022
Malawi: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Request for a Staff Monitored Program with Executive Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director For Malawi
Description: Foreign exchange shortages together with exchange rate misalignment led to a sharp decline in imports including fuel, fertilizer, medicine, and food. Large fiscal deficits, nearly 10 percent of GDP in FY2021/22, have been largely financed by domestic bank borrowing, resulting in rapid money growth and inflation of 25.9 percent in September 2022. Exchange rate pass-through and hikes in food prices added to inflationary pressure. In addition, food insecurity in Malawi has increased dramatically under the impact of multiple tropical storms, below-average crop production, and increasing prices for food and agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and seeds. The latter are expected to affect the current planting season. As a result of these factors, about 20 percent of the population is projected to be acutely food insecure during the upcoming 2022/23 lean season (October 2022-March 2023), more than twice as many as in 2021.
November 23, 2022
Republic of San Marino: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: San Marino's economic activity showed remarkable resilience throughout the pandemic. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, San Marino faced an unprecedented energy price shock which, compounded with a food price shock, led to high inflation and real income erosion. However, strong external demand amidst global supply chain constraints and an elevated inflow of tourists have boosted economic activity so far this year. At the same time, San Marino secured beneficial energy import prices this year and next that have resulted in tariffs below regional peers at minimal fiscal costs. Despite a strong economy, the fiscal position in 2021 remained relatively weak. However, greater reliance on domestic debt along with a large share of long maturing and low interest debt is supporting favorable debt dynamics given higher inflation. Banks' capitalization and profitability improved in 2021, deposits continued to grow, while credit contracted. Progress halted recently while vulnerabilities remain given very large nonperforming assets and weak capitalization.
November 23, 2022
Uganda: Technical Report - Public Investment Management Assessment
Description: Uganda has achieved significant improvements in public investment management over the last few years. The new IMF Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) report shows that Uganda is well ahead of its comparators in many aspects of public investment management, in particular in institutional design. A number of important measures have been undertaken, including giving the Development Committee a strong role as a gatekeeper for new investment proposals, the establishment of the Projects Analysis and Public Investment Department, and development of guidelines and manuals to improve the quality of project preparation and appraisal. Many reforms are fairly recent and are not fully institutionalized, so there is a clear need to continue and to further strengthen public investment management in Uganda. The IMF and other development partners are active partners to the government in pursuing these reforms.
November 21, 2022
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
Description: Growth decelerated marginally in 2017, as the continued decline in CBI inflows slowed growth in construction. Consumer inflation was low, partly due to a small contraction in food prices. The overall fiscal balance remained in surplus but has deteriorated markedly since its 2013- peak, and the debt-to-GDP ratio increased marginally from the previous year. The current account deficit remains high and only marginally declined in 2017, as the decline in CBI receipts was more than offset by growing tourism receipts and a significant decrease in imports. Foreign reserves at the ECCB remained at comfortable levels, well above the various reserve-adequacy metrics. The banking sector has reported capital and liquidity ratios that are well above the regulatory minimum but has elevated NPLs and risks, including delays in completing the debt-land swap arrangement and loss of Corresponding Banking Relationships (CBRs).
November 18, 2022
St. Lucia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Lucia
Description: The St. Lucian economy is confronted with significant challenges from consecutive external shocks. While still recovering from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to an output collapse in 2020 and 2021 mainly due to a halt in tourism, the war in Ukraine is adding inflation and balance of payments pressures given the dependence on fuel and food imports.