Country Reports
2023
June 13, 2023
Republic of Armenia: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: The Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) is off to a good start, and the economic outlook is generally positive. Real GDP growth reached 12.6 percent in 2022, driven by robust consumption and a surge in inflow of income, capital, business, and labor. Growth is expected to decelerate but remain robust in 2023. Headline inflation fell to 3.2 percent (year-on-year) in April, including due to base effects, lower food inflation, dram appreciation, and monetary policy tightening. Risks to the outlook are elevated, requiring the continuation of strong policies to build resilience further.
June 13, 2023
Paraguay: First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of Targets-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: Recent developments: Paraguay continues to recover from last year’s severe drought, with economic growth for 2023 expected at 4.5 percent. The recovery of agricultural exports is also contributing to an improved external current account, easing potential pressures on the exchange rate. In the context of a continued tight monetary policy stance, inflation has been declining over the last twelve months. The government successfully reduced the fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP, and fiscal policies remain on the envisaged consolidation path. Paraguay’s financial and banking sector remains stable. On April 30, Paraguay held national elections in which the candidate for the ruling Colorado party, Santiago Peña, was elected President by a significant margin.
June 13, 2023
Guinea-Bissau: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state facing significant development challenges, including sustaining the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply disruptions, and the global economic slowdown. The IMF Board approved a three-year ECF arrangement with access of 100 percent of quota (SDR 28.4 million) in January 2023. Building on the 2021 SMP achievements, the program supports a credible fiscal consolidation that ensures medium-term debt sustainability. The structural agenda to strengthen governance and AML/CFT framework will improve the management of fiscal resources and public investment, increase transparency and accountability and counter corruption.
June 12, 2023
Côte d'Ivoire: Requests for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and a 40-Month Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d'Ivoire
Description: This paper presents Côte d'Ivoire’s request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a 40-Month Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). IMF Board approves 40-month arrangements under the EFF and ECF for Côte d’Ivoire to help support the country’s transformation toward upper-middle income status through the implementation of the authorities’ national development plan while preserving macroeconomic stability. The key reform agenda under the arrangements is domestic revenue mobilization, which is central in preserving fiscal and debt sustainability and along with increased spending efficiency should generate fiscal space to help finance investment needs and critical spending in health and education to allow for deeper economic transformation. Structural reforms should further deliver improvements in business climate, private sector investments and financial inclusion to foster the necessary conditions for inclusive growth, through strengthening governance and human capital investments, especially amongst youth and women.
June 8, 2023
Belize: Technical Assistance Report-Transition to Accrual Accounting
Description: Belize is planning to transition to accrual accounting over the medium term. This reform is considered an advanced practice on the public financial management (PFM) spectrum and has been attempted by few regional comparators (Barbados, Bermuda, Cayman Islands and Curacao). There is a strong commitment and enthusiasm for reform from the Treasury’s new leadership. The authorities want to improve transparency and accountability as well as shift their current focus on payments and reconciliations to include modern Treasury functions such as financial management, cash management and financial reporting. While full accrual practices may not be achieved in the short term, the reform presents opportunities for more efficient work procedures, greater cross-cutting collaboration, improved transparency, lower borrowing costs and the possibility to become a regional example.
June 8, 2023
Libya: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Libya
Description: This is the first Article IV Consultation since 2013. Libya’s institutional framework has helped the country through a period of significant macroeconomic volatility and turmoil. There have been exceptional swings in oil production and revenues since the fall of the Ghaddafi regime in 2011. Despite this, the measures taken by the Central Bank of Libya, including the currency’s devaluation in 2021, helped maintain a large buffer of international reserves. The stability of the exchange rate will remain an important anchor for monetary policy going forward.
June 7, 2023
Republic of Kosovo: Request for Stand-By Arrangement and an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Kosovo
Description: After a strong recovery from the pandemic, higher international commodity prices moderated GDP growth in 2022, which posted 3.5 percent, while inflation exceeded 11 percent. Lower commodity prices in 2023 will provide much-needed relief to households and firms. This, together with supportive fiscal policy, especially higher public investment absorption, will underpin higher growth of about 4 percent, and lower inflation, which should slow to 5–6 percent. Risks continue to be mainly on the downside: higher commodity prices would lead to lower growth and higher inflation, and tighter financial conditions would weigh on bank asset quality and liquidity.
June 7, 2023
Switzerland: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
Description: Growth slowed in 2022 to 2.1 percent and should decline to 0.8 percent in 2023, with risks on the downside. Inflation was 2.9 percent in March and may remain above 2 percent until 2024, due to wage pressures and rent increases. The current account surplus is expected to moderate to 7.8 percent of GDP in 2023 (global slowdown, normalization of merchanting trade). The focus of fiscal policy has shifted to offsetting extraordinary outlays while addressing medium-term spending needs within the debtbrake rule. Monetary policy is focused on reducing inflation. Credit Suisse challenges led to state-facilitated acquisition by UBS. Otherwise, financial sector buffers remain strong, but risks have increased. Pension reforms and EU dialogue progressed. Challenges are aging and skill gaps, energy security, green transition, and geo-economic fragmentation.