Country Reports
2023
December 14, 2023
Republic of Armenia: 2023 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
Description: Armenia’s growth accelerated in 2022 and remained strong in 2023, boosted by an inflow of foreign exchange, migrants, and businesses, mainly from Russia. Inflation, which peaked in the wake of the war in Ukraine, has quickly subsided. However, the regional security situation worsened significantly in September 2023, after Azerbaijan’s government took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, which triggered the exodus of about 100,000 ethnic Armenians into Armenia. The government has responded with prompt policy measures to support their immediate needs.
December 14, 2023
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries; IMF Country Report No. 23/413; December 5, 2023
Description: The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.
December 14, 2023
Maldives: Financial System Stability Assessment; and Press Release
Description: Maldives is a tourist dependent economy with a small financial sector dominated by state-owned banks. Protracted fiscal and external deficits have raised concerns about debt sustainability and the level of international reserves. Large government funding needs have resulted in a strong sovereign-bank nexus, and rationing of foreign exchange by the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) has fueled a parallel foreign exchange market.
December 12, 2023
Dominica: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics
Description: A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Dominica as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on improving data sources for travel credits and the Citizenship by Investment Program (CBI) flows for the balance of payments. In addition, the provisional 2022 balance of payments estimates that will be disseminated in December 2023 were reviewed, as well as the net errors and omissions (NEOs) series.
December 12, 2023
Sri Lanka: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criteria, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka
Description: As part of the IMF-supported arrangement Sri Lanka has undertaken significant reforms to pave the way out of a deep economic and debt crisis. The economy is showing tentative signs of stabilization, supported by rapid disinflation and a significant fiscal adjustment. Tax revenues have increased but not as much as initially projected, and reserves accumulation has slowed, including due to slow progress on debt restructuring. Continued ownership of reforms is essential to rebuild fiscal credibility and to improve governance and reduce corruption vulnerabilities. The authorities reached agreements in principle (AIPs) with official creditors on debt treatments consistent with program parameters and are in good faith discussions with their private creditors.
December 12, 2023
Seychelles: First Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The Seychellois economy continues to recover as tourist arrivals move closer to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation is on a downward trajectory due to decreased global food and fuel prices. The government’s primary fiscal position is expected to be near balance in 2023, stronger than expected at the outset of the EFF/RSF program. External balances have improved. The current account deficit is projected to decline to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2023 and foreign reserves to rise to an equivalent of 3.7 months of imports. The ratio of public and publicly guaranteed debt to GDP is expected to fall to about 64 percent of GDP by end-2023, compared to 81 percent in 2020. The authorities are advancing with reform measures agreed under the RSF.
December 12, 2023
Namibia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Namibia has shown resilience to the negative shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Output has recovered to the pre pandemic level, inflation has fallen below 6 percent, and expectations remain anchored. Official reserves, at 4.7 month of imports in September, exhibit adequacy consistent with the peg to the rand. Prospects are brightened with discovery of oil and gas reserves. At the same time, Namibia is poised to benefit from the global pivot to green energy through its signature Green Hydrogen Project. Meanwhile, the challenge of improving public sector efficiency and reducing the large wage bill, not only for the sake of preserving debt sustainability, but also for the Namibian people to benefit the most from these new developments, remains paramount. Elections are scheduled for 2024.
December 12, 2023
Guinea-Bissau: Third Review Under The Extended Credit Facility Arrangement And Requests For Augmentation Of Access, Waiver Of Nonobservance Of Performance Criteria, Modification Of A Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau
Description: Guinea Bissau’s socio-political context remained stable during the transition to an opposition-led new government, but the country is facing an adverse external shock. Disappointing cashew nut exports have widened the current account deficit substantially, while financing is constrained by tighter regional financial conditions. High food prices are causing food insecurity risks. Against this backdrop, the authorities have requested augmentation of access of 40 percent of quota (SDR 11.36 million) to meet pressing financing needs, bringing the total program access to 140 percent of quota (SDR 39.76 million). The ECF-supported program has been catalyzing much-needed highly concessional financing, especially additional budget support.
December 12, 2023
Cote d'Ivoire: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
Description: The implementation of the 2012-2015 and 2016-2020 National Plans of Development Plan (NDP) allowed the country to make significant progress and consolidate economic growth, despite a global context marked by trade tensions, a drop in commodity prices and the COVID-19 pandemic.
December 12, 2023
Côte d'Ivoire: First Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d'Ivoire
Description: Following consecutive global shocks and widening imbalances, the EFF/ECF-supported program aims to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support Côte d’Ivoire’s transformation towards upper middle-income status over the medium-term. The economic setting remains broadly unchanged relative to projections at program approval in May 2023, with growth remaining resilient and inflationary pressures receding, although external headwinds and pressures on regional reserves continue to weigh on the outlook. Program implementation so far has been strong with all performance criteria and structural benchmarks met.