Country Reports
2019
June 13, 2019
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper investigates the direct and indirect exposure of the Czech Republic to these external risks. The Czech Republic is a small open economy that has become increasingly reliant on export-driven growth over the last three decades. Domestic value-added in foreign exports as a share of gross exports in the Czech Republic is higher than the average share of the European Union 28. Services have a relatively low contribution to value-added in gross exports. Given the high integration of the Czech Republic into global value chains, it is crucial to take supply chain linkages into account when assessing the impact of trade shocks. The exposure to Germany is even more pronounced at the sectoral level. Manufacturing of machinery and transportation vehicles account for a large share of exports and imports in the Czech Republic. Although the impact of the US-China trade disputes on the Czech Republic would likely be limited, a hard Brexit scenario or lower demand in Germany could have sizable effects.
June 13, 2019
Vanuatu: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vanuatu
Description: Four years after Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu causing extensive damages, reconstruction is near completion with full recovery in sight. The authorities are now focused on implementing their broader development plans that were slowed by the rebuilding process, which will require fiscal discipline and reforms to maintain debt sustainability. The authorities should continue their constructive engagement with development partners for technical assistance, capacity development, and concessional and grant-based funding. In parallel continuing to reform and strengthen the governance of institutions and removing vulnerabilities to corruption will be important.
June 12, 2019
Norway: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
Description: While many advanced economies are experiencing slower growth, Norway’s output has continued to expand strongly, helped by a robust labor market, positive terms of trade, and some competitiveness gains. Core inflation has picked up to close to 2¼ percent. Residential house price growth has softened significantly but prices remain overvalued, and household debt continues to rise. Commercial real estate risks are also intensifying and combine with mounting external risks to cloud the outlook. The Christian Democrats have recently joined Prime Minister Solberg’s governing coalition, which now enjoys a majority in parliament.
June 11, 2019
Botswana: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Price Statistics Mission
Description: This paper discusses the report on Botswana by technical assistance mission conducted in response to a request from Statistics Botswana (SB) to assist with updating the consumer price index (CPI) and to review progress with the development of the producer price index (PPI). SB has compiled a draft PPI for mining and quarrying and plan to disseminate these data in September 2019. Further work to expand PPI coverage has been slower than anticipated for a number of reasons, including: data from the 2017 census of economic activity are still not available; resources diverted to support updating the CPI; and issues with the collection of price data. Improvements were identified in the compilation of the mining PPI. The report highlights that whilst the staff clearly show the capability for developing price indexes, they are limited by the amount of resource available with which to develop and disseminate indexes. SB management should carefully review the staff and budgetary resources needed to continue a program of development for PPI and ongoing improvement of the CPI.
June 11, 2019
Botswana: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the National Accounts Mission
Description: This paper discusses results of a technical assistance report prepared to assist Statistics Botswana (SB) improve the quality of the national accounts statistics. SB is currently rebasing the annual national accounts with an expected release date of March 2020. SB is currently rebasing the national accounts to a base year of 2016. An economic census commenced in 2016 with the first phase being a business listing exercise which resulted in the identification of 14,452 establishments SB conducted a business listing exercise to provide the frame for the economic census which underpins the rebasing of the national accounts. SB and the mission developed a detailed workplan to demonstrate the magnitude of rebasing the national accounts. The workplan provided a more realistic (but still very tight) deadline for the completion of the exercise which was presented to management. SB and the mission reviewed the industry and product classifications that had been developed with assistance from the Africa Development Bank. It has been recommended that changes could still be made depending on the data available once compilation commences.
June 10, 2019
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Description: This paper discusses Afghanistan’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The paper highlights that in the face of many headwinds, Afghanistan’s government continues to demonstrate strong ownership of the program supported by the ECF arrangement. The economic outlook is clouded by numerous uncertainties; however, ongoing peace negotiations offer hope for a much-needed improvement in the security situation. The security situation remains strained, but the US-Taliban peace negotiations have improved prospects for a political settlement. External financing should continue to rely on grants and concessional funding. Any scaling up of externally financed public investment should be gradual and preceded by an assessment of macro-fiscal implications and strengthened debt management. Continued reforms remain key to achieving higher and more inclusive growth. Reforms in support of fiscal sustainability, institution building, anti-corruption efforts, and financial stability should continue.
June 10, 2019
Maldives: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that growth in Maldives has been strong and is projected to remain so in 2019 driven by tourism, commerce, and construction. Nonetheless, the Maldives remains highly vulnerable with reduced policy space due to large and growing public debt and rising pressures on external stability. The consultation focused on addressing external imbalances including offering advice on restoring fiscal buffers, strengthening public finance management, reforming the exchange rate regime, building international reserves, improving governance, implementing structural reforms, and encouraging diversification. The outlook is for continued strong growth and moderate inflation, and only a gradual improvement in fiscal and current account deficits. As major infrastructure projects will gradually start to unwind, the current account deficit will begin to narrow. Under the current policies, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain elevated. However, successful implementation of tax reforms and improved tax administration, together with measures to contain budgetary spending, would result in a narrowing of both fiscal and current account deficits and mitigate the risks posed by high and rising public and external debt.
June 5, 2019
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: 2019 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba’s economic recovery continues, although at a slowing pace. The authorities have managed well the impact of the crisis in Venezuela through diversification of product markets and tourism sources. Nonetheless, a deepening of the crisis is a downside risk—mainly through a potentially sizable influx of immigrants and refugees. It is recommended to identify additional reform measures to achieve Aruba’s fiscal targets. These measures should involve a mix of revenue increases and expenditure restraint, and be prioritized, sequenced, equitable, and well-communicated to minimize implementation risks and ensure the measures’ durability. The government devised a reform agenda with fiscal consolidation as a key pillar. Additional measures are needed to achieve the authorities’ fiscal targets. The additional adjustment should contain a mix of tax reforms and expenditure rationalization. The fiscal measures in 2019 are expected to deliver a large upfront increase in revenues but it will be important to strike a balance between revenue increases and expenditure restraint in subsequent years.
June 5, 2019
Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Armenia seeks to quantify the macroeconomic impact of the government’s reform agenda, which covers three broad areas: tax policy and pension; governance, government efficiency, and corruption; and labor market and competition. Strengthening growth and competitiveness and addressing governance problems requires comprehensive reform efforts. The new government has made it clear that fighting corruption and improving governance remain top priorities. Measures have been proposed to enhance corporate transparency, including through accounting and auditing reforms. A more systematic support program for small and medium-sized enterprises, along with labor market reforms, should also help alleviate unemployment difficulties. The simulations suggest that the government’s tax policy reform can have a positive impact on output in the medium run if it is accompanied by supporting measures. The results suggest that a full implementation of the reform package would yield substantial benefits for the economy. In particular, it could increase real GDP by as much as 7 percent over the long run.
June 5, 2019
Republic of Armenia: 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Armenia
Description: This paper presents Armenia’s 2019 Article IV Consultation report and request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The arrangement is intended to be precautionary. It will provide insurance against external shocks and support the authorities’ efforts to strengthen economic fundamentals and policy frameworks. It will also help effective implementation of structural reforms, particularly relating to governance and improving business climate. Discussions focused on macroeconomic and structural policies to ensure macro and fiscal sustainability, foster higher and more broad-based growth, and strengthen resilience to shocks. Supported by the upgraded fiscal rule, fiscal consolidation remains on track, and public debt has started to decline. Inflation is under control, the financial system remains stable, and pressures on the exchange rate have been limited. The authorities’ efforts are centered on advancing structural reforms to generate higher, more inclusive, and resilient growth; and strong policies to maintain macroeconomic stability.