Country Reports
2020
December 22, 2020
Euro Area Policies: 2020 Consultation on Common Euro Area Policies-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
Description: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to severe socio-economic dislocations and hardship. Supported by an unprecedented policy response and by the easing of lockdown measures as the infection rate moderated, the euro area economy initially recovered strongly from the pandemic’s first wave. However, a large second wave and reimposition of containment measures suggest much slower growth momentum in the near term. The outlook is for a subdued economic recovery and low inflation, with a significant permanent output loss relative to the pre-crisis trajectory. Uncertainty remains extremely high, mainly due to different pandemic scenarios, including regarding the availability and effectiveness of potential vaccines and therapies and behavioral changes. Output growth is expected to be much lower through 2021Q1 than projected in 2020 October World Economic Outlook (WEO) but may rebound beyond then in light of recent promising news on vaccine development. The key policy challenge is to continue countering the pandemic while facilitating a robust and inclusive recovery, including by addressing the health crisis, containing economic scarring, supporting resource reallocation and transformation to greener and more digital economies, and limiting the crisis’s impact on inequality and poverty. In a downside scenario, sizable further stimulus would be needed.
December 21, 2020
Cote d'Ivoire: Seventh and Eighth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d’Ivoire
Description: Prior to the COVID crisis, Côte d’Ivoire had established a strong track record of economic policies, although domestic revenue mobilization has disappointed. The authorities reacted swiftly to the pandemic, supported by emergency financing from the IMF and other donors. They implemented a health and economic response plan combined with frontloaded capital spending, relaxing the 2020 fiscal stance by 3½ ppt of GDP compared to pre-COVID projections. The authorities will start consolidating the fiscal position in 2021 while supporting the recovery, with tax measures underpinning the 2021 budget. Beyond, the authorities are committed to returning to the regional fiscal deficit norm of 3 percent of GDP by 2023. The October 2020 presidential election was accompanied by socio-political tensions.
December 20, 2020
Georgia: Seventh Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia
Description: Georgia’s performance under the Extended Arrangement has been positive, but the country is now facing a pronounced economic slowdown. Domestic and external demand remain weak, and service sector activity remains sluggish. Staff projects the economy to shrink by 5.1 percent this year followed by a gradual recovery.
December 18, 2020
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Soundness Indicators Mission
Description: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) Statistics Department (STA) provided technical assistance (TA) on financial soundness indicators (FSI) to the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) during June 15-July 10, 2020. The TA mission took place in response to a request from the authorities, with the support of the IMF’s African Department (AFR). Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and travel restrictions, the mission was conducted remotely via video conferences. The mission worked with the staff of the NBE on the development of FSIs that are in line with the IMF’s 2019 FSI Guide.1 The main objectives of the mission were to: (i) review the source data, institutional coverage, and accounting and regulatory frameworks supporting the compilation of FSIs; (ii) provide guidance for mapping source data for the banking sector to the FSI reporting templates FS2 and FSD as well as preparing the metadata; and (iii) agree with the authorities on the timeline to begin regular reporting of the FSIs for deposit-takers to STA. The mission also provided technical assistance to the NBE on the compilation of net open positions in foreign currencies.
December 18, 2020
United Kingdom: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom
Description: The UK entered 2020 negotiating a new economic relationship with the EU and facing other challenges, including meeting climate targets, dealing with an aging population, and reinvigorating tepid productivity growth. Growth and investment had been weak since the 2016 referendum, and the current account deficit elevated, but unemployment was low, inflation on target, and balance sheets strong. The global pandemic hit the UK hard in March, and the country now faces a second wave. The economic impact has been severe, but helped by an aggressive policy response, jobs have been preserved, businesses kept afloat, and banking sector losses contained. Still, the outlook for the near term is weak, as the economy works through the second wave, Brexit, rising unemployment, and corporate distress. Risks are overall to the downside, centering on the degree of balance sheet damage sustained by households and small and medium enterprises. The pace at which vaccines are able to bring the pandemic under control could be an important mitigating factor.
December 16, 2020
Kingdom of Lesotho: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics
Description: In response to a request from the authorities and as part of the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) 2 project, a government finance statistics (GFS) mission visited Maseru, Lesotho, during January 20–31, 2020. The mission was the last, in a series of five consecutive technical assistance (TA) missions to Lesotho, as part of the EDDI 2 project. The objective of the five-year project, that started in 2015 was to foster compilation and dissemination of GFS and public sector debt statistics (PSDS) consistent with international methodological standards. The work program under the project identified the enhancement of classification of transactions in fiscal accounts and the expansion of the institutional coverage of data to include all significant general government units as key milestones to achieve by the end of the project.
December 16, 2020
Republic of Armenia: Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Republic of Armenia
Description: Armenia’s economy has been hit hard by twin shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic (now in its second wave), and the recent military hostilities involving the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict zone. Reflecting these shocks, growth is expected at -7¼ percent this year, with the fiscal deficit and debt rising considerably. Nonetheless, the authorities have responded promptly with healthcare and anti-crisis measures to limit the pandemic’s impact while protecting vulnerable groups and safeguarding macroeconomic stability.
December 16, 2020
Honduras: Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, Requests for Extension and Rephasing of the Arrangements, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
Description: The near-term outlook has worsened, while a recovery is expected for next year. Amid a weak health system and a surge in infections over the summer, the gradual reopening of the economy has faced setbacks and the pandemic is having a stronger and more protracted social and economic impact than expected. While the policy response to the Covid-19 shock was appropriately designed, there have been implementation challenges and delays. The authorities’ monitoring system of pandemic-related spending and civil society oversight helped identify missteps to implement corrective actions, for which they are receiving technical assistance from FAD and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). More recently, Honduras is also facing the challenge to respond to two tropical storms, which the authorities intend to manage within the contour of the current economic program.
December 14, 2020
Guinea: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
Description: Real growth is expected to reach 5.2 percent in 2020 as the severe impact of the pandemic in the country was partially mitigated by a resilient mining sector. Presidential elections were held on October 18, giving President Condé an outright victory. Such results were contested by the opposition and followed by violent demonstrations and unrest. Since the Constitutional Court validated the electoral results on November 7, the situation has remained calm.
December 11, 2020
Barbados: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for Augmentation of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Barbados
Description: Barbados has made good progress in implementing its Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuild reserves, and increase growth—but faces major challenges owing to the global coronavirus pandemic. Since May 2018, international reserves have increased from a low of US$220 million (5-6 weeks of import coverage) to more than US$1 billion at end-October 2020. This, and a successful 2018-19 public debt restructuring, have helped rebuild confidence in the country’s macroeconomic framework. While the local spread of COVID-19 has been successfully contained, allowing for a cautious reopening of the tourism sector in July, economic activity remains severely depressed owing to the global pandemic. Risks to the outlook remain elevated.