Speech

Remarks of the Managing Director to the 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

November 14, 2024

As prepared for delivery

Good morning! Welcome to the 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference! Twenty-five years is a huge milestone. And I want to give my heartfelt congratulations and thanks to the Research Department and Pierre-Olivier for all you’ve achieved over the past quarter century.

Over that time, we’ve had our ups and downs. Periods of high growth and low growth. Profound changes in the global economy, and crises. Through it all, the ARC has shed light on some of the most difficult questions facing our profession, helping policymakers navigate the most complex challenges. My task is to honor this incredibly distinguished history—in under 5 minutes. Impossible, but I will try!

The first ARC was under Michael Mussa. It was the year 2000, when Maury Obstfeld laid out a new international macroeconomics research agenda looking beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model—at the Mundell-Fleming lecture, no less! That was 15 years before Maury became Chief Economist.

After Michael came Ken Rogoff, whose accomplishments we celebrated here last year. Then, under Raghu Rajan's leadership, the ARC focused on fundamental issues that remain highly relevant today: from exchange rate regimes to capital flows and structural reforms. These insights were crucial in guiding policymakers' responses to mitigate the impact of the Global Financial Crisis.

The next ARC explored the latest factors impacting exchange rates and examined their policy implications. It was led by Simon Johnson—who we're proud to say is now a Nobel laureate!

Afterwards, Olivier Blanchard’s record-setting run of seven ARCs began, at the height of the Global Financial Crisis. And, in the years that followed, it was only natural that many of these ARCs allowed us to reflect on macroeconomic and financial policies in the shadow of the crisis. That work made us better prepared for the shocks of the past five years.

Gita’s ARCs were shaped by the pandemic. They helped us better incorporate epidemiology into macroeconomic models early in the COVID crisis, and later gave insight into pandemic’s impact on capital flows.

And with Pierre-Olivier’s stewardship, we have written a new playbook to help countries address the challenges of the post-pandemic, climate-impacted world, including inflation and elevated debt.

This year will continue the ARC’s tradition of excellence, I am sure, as you Rethink the Policy Toolkit in a Turbulent Global Economy.

The profound shocks of COVID and war have left us with inflation and fragmentation, even as we need economic growth to address challenges from poverty to climate change.

Yet the growth outlook, while stabilizing, remains much lower than pre-pandemic. Inflation has declined, but not been fully defeated. And elevated debt levels constrain fiscal space, especially in countries that most need to spend to educate their young populations, build infrastructure, and increase their climate resilience.

This conference will focus on how to address these and other challenges that central banks and fiscal authorities face—and what the international community can do together.

With Gita, Pierre-Olivier, and the RES team in the lead, you are in great hands. I wish you the best for an illuminating, productive conference.

Over to you, Gita.