Economic Surveillance

The coronavirus crisis has stiffened debt and development-related headwinds that had become strong even before 2020. Sustaining development while maintaining debt sustainability has been made harder by the protracted effects of the pandemic on public finances, earnings and employment, and human capital accumulation of vulnerable populations. The fiscal support programs financed by public debt provided relief and saved lives and livelihoods. But debt-induced uncertainty can now dampen investment and growth, especially given rising global interest rates.

The Staff Operational Guidance on Dissemination of Capacity Development Information sets forth procedures on the dissemination of capacity development information, based on the objectives of wider, more active, and timelier sharing of information while safeguarding the Fund’s candor and role as trusted advisor. The guidance draws from internal consultations and Executive Directors’ views on the Updated Framework on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information.

The war in Ukraine risks derailing the global economic recovery at a time when many countries have yet to overcome the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. Disruptions have already a severe impact on commodity markets, trade, and financial conditions, while inflation has become a major challenge in many countries and is adding to social pressures. The combination of shocks amplifies complex policy trade-offs that require astute macroeconomic management, for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs), this includes preparing for higher interest rates that would translate into costlier terms of borrowing. Fuel and food price increases as well as food insecurity affect vulnerable populations the most, especially in low-income developing countries (LIDCs).

This paper provides the first review of the adequacy of PRGT finances since the comprehensive reform of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) in July 2021. It describes the lending response to the unprecedented pandemic-related demand; updates the PRGT demand scenarios and the estimates of the longer-term PRGT resource needs; reports on progress with the first stage of the two-stage PRGT funding strategy approved in July 2021; and outlines recent developments in the various debt relief initiatives and their status.

The global policy agenda that follows recalibrates priorities to meet the new reality we are facing. The IMF also continues to adjust to respond to the rapidly evolving needs of our membership. Our flexibility has been evident over the past two years of the COVID crisis: unprecedented emergency financing; a historic Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation; an innovative plan to end the pandemic. Now, as we face another crisis on top of a crisis, we will continue to step up and support our member countries in every way we can—with financial resources, policy advice, and capacity development—working in collaboration with our international partners.

Since the 2021 Annual Meetings, the IEO has made considerable progress with three ongoing evaluations, while two management implementation plans (MIPs) to follow up on recommendations from previous evaluations have been approved by the Board. In addition, to mark its twentieth birthday, the IEO organized a virtual conference to reflect on experience from its second decade and consider future challenges. We have also contributed to the ongoing work on institutional integrity at the IMF, drawing on a stocktaking of material contained in past evaluations and are considering additional work on these issues as we select two new evaluation topics later this year.

The challenges from the pandemic, spillovers from geopolitical shocks, and long-standing structural problems pose an enormous impediment for balance of payments stability and resilient and sustainable growth, especially for low-income and vulnerable middle-income countries. The $650 billion SDR allocation in August 2021 has helped support economic stability by supplementing members’ reserves. There is scope to amplify the effect of these SDRs by channeling them from countries with strong external positions to countries where the needs are the greatest.

Insights from the IPF workstream can help guide the appropriate policy mix during an inflow surge, based on the shock and country characteristics. Inflow surges may be caused by a range of shocks and can take different forms in different countries. The IPF models suggest that warranted macroeconomic policy adjustments depend on the nature of the shock and country characteristics.

For more information, read the press release.

The Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows, adopted in 2012, provides the basis for consistent advice, and where relevant, assessments on policies related to capital flows. This paper reviews the IV, informed by advances in research, notably the work on an Integrated Policy Framework (IPF), the findings of the 2020 evaluation by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) on IMF Advice on Capital Flows, and staff’s experience with the implementation of the IV.

For more information, read the press release.

The Fund’s Institutional View (IV) recognizes the benefits of and risks associated with capital flows. Since the IV was adopted, a growing literature has provided additional insights into the benefits and risks from capital flows. This note summarizes the insights from the recent literature and the experiences of staff since the adoption of the IV that have informed this review.

For more information, read the press release.

This note outlines the approach of the proposed revision to the Institutional View (IV) when assessing whether systemic financial stability risks are elevated due to foreign currency (FX) mismatches. The approach builds on the staff guidance regarding risk assessments in bilateral surveillance, while allowing for flexibility to draw on future advances in best practice.

For more information, read the press release.

This note describes the key principles for the design and implementation of preemptive CFM/MPMs. These measures should be designed to be effective—so they achieve their intended goal and are not easily circumvented—and efficient—so they minimize distortions and costs. Preemptive CFM/MPMs should be targeted, calibrated to risks, transparent, and as temporary as possible.

For more information, read the press release.

Rules and Regulations for the Investment Account, which were adopted on January 23, 2013, and amended thereafter, were further amended on January 12, 2022, by the Executive Board of the IMF.

Guidelines for Investing PRG, PRG-HIPC, and CCR Trust Assets (the “Guidelines”), which were adopted on March 22, 2017, were further amended on January 12, 2022, by the Executive Board of the IMF. The Guidelines establish the investment objectives and policies to guide the investment of assets of the PRG, PRG-HIPC, and CCR Trusts (the “Trusts”) which are available for investment under the Trusts’ instruments.

The IMF Data Standards Initiatives enhance data transparency as a global public good. The Tenth Review updates the framework, in light of new data priorities, through a parsimonious and principles-based expansion of encouraged data categories covering selected aspects in the areas of public debt, macro-financial indicators, foreign exchange intervention, climate change-related policy, and gender- disaggregated labor market statistics.

For more information, read the press release.

This paper proposes a comprehensive Strategy to strengthen IMF support to FCS in accordance with the Fund’s mandate and comparative advantage. The Strategy is a response to the Board-endorsed recommendations of the 2018 Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Report on The IMF and Fragile States. To achieve these goals, the Strategy will benefit from additional resources reflected in the FY23-25 Medium-Term Budget, as per the budget augmentation framework discussed by the Board in December 2021.

For more information, read the press release.

This guidance note outlines good practices on information-sharing across key areas in which the Bank and the IMF interact. The note outlines general principles consistent with these frameworks and discusses how the staffs of the two institutions are expected to exchange information related to country operations, technical assistance, and policy work.

This report provides an overview of recent developments in the implementation of the Fund’s Transparency Policy, as required by the Executive Board. It covers documents considered by the Board in 2020 and their respective publication status up to June 2021. To provide some perspective on trends, it compares the implementation of the Fund’s Transparency Policy on the 2020 documents with preceding years.

The IMF’s capacity development (CD) information dissemination policy needs to adapt to a new landscape. The Fund is providing more CD and producing greater and more diverse types of CD-related information. Meanwhile, the external landscape has also evolved, as members, partners, and other CD providers increasingly expect greater transparency and access to information. This paper sets out envisaged reforms to further widen the dissemination and publication of CD information.

Over the course of the pandemic, the Fund has made several modifications to the access limits on the use of Fund’s resources to increase the borrowing space under the hard caps on emergency financing and under the annual limits that trigger exceptional access (EA) safeguards under GRA and PRGT. The current temporarily-increased access limits expire at end-December 2021, and absent policy changes, the limits would return to the lower pre-pandemic levels or to the new PRGT annual access limit.

For more information, read the press release.

December 2021 List of IMF Member Countries with Delays in Completion of Article IV Consultations or Mandatory Financial Stability Assessments over 18 months.

Countries have committed, through the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to pursue climate targets and policies that would limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. A shift toward green public investment will help to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

This Work Program puts forward an IMF Board agenda focused on activities of critical importance to our members. In line with the strategic directions laid out in the Fall 2021 Global Policy Agenda and the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Communiqué, the Work Program supports three policy priorities: (i) vaccinate the world to combat the pandemic everywhere; (ii) calibrate bilateral and multilateral policies to support the recovery and reduce scarring and divergences; and (iii) accelerate the transformation of the global economy to make it greener, more digital, and inclusive.

The Executive Board approved a two-step approach consisting of (i) an immediate approval of the disbursement of a fourth tranche of debt service relief to all qualified beneficiary countries covering the period from October 16, 2021 through January 10, 2022, and (ii) consideration by January 2022 of a final tranche of CCRT debt service relief through April 13, 2022 based on a brief Board paper with an assessment of resources at that time. In accordance with the two-step approach, this paper provides a brief overview on recent developments in CCRT-eligible countries followed by an update on the CCRT’s funding status and resources assessment.

For more information, read the press release.

Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.

GCC policymakers moved quickly to mitigate the health and economic impacts of twin COVID-19 and oil price shocks. Infection rates have declined across the GCC to well below previous peaks, though countries have experienced successive waves of the virus, and economic recoveries have begun to take hold. Nevertheless, GCC policymakers must navigate a challenging and uncertain landscape. The pandemic continues to cloud the global outlook as countries are in different phases of recovery, with varied growth prospects and policy space.

As emerging and developing economies accumulate more domestic sovereign debt, it is likely to play a larger role in the resolution of future sovereign debt crises. This paper analyzes when and how to restructure sovereign domestic debt in unsustainable debt cases while minimizing economic and financial disruptions. Key to determining whether or not domestic debt should be part of a sovereign restructuring is weighing the benefits of the lower debt burden against the fiscal and broader economic costs of achieving that debt relief.

The Eleventh Periodic Monitoring Report (PMR) on the Status of Management Implementation Plans (MIPs) in Response to Board-Endorsed Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Recommendations assessed the progress made over the past 18 months on 72 actions contained in 10 MIPs. Significant progress has been made with the implementation of management actions, despite challenges that have arisen from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, 29 of the 72 actions for which implementation progress is assessed in the Eleventh PMR were deemed to have been satisfactorily implemented, while 35 remain open, and eight actions are being reformulated in line with the Board-approved triage framework for long-standing open actions.

This paper reports on the Fund’s income position for FY 2021 following the closing of the Fund’s accounts for the financial year and completion of the external audit. Overall FY 2021 net income amounted to SDR 4.8 billion or SDR 0.7 billion higher than estimated in April, mainly reflecting a larger than anticipated gain reported under IAS 19 (the accounting standard for employee benefits) and endowment returns exceeding earlier projections.

The paper presents highlights from the FY 2021 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.

This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. In over three decades, SDRs have been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). The VTAs are bilateral arrangements between the Fund and SDR participants or prescribed holders, in which the VTA members agree to buy and sell SDRs within certain limits. A fraction of transactions by agreement—sales or acquisitions of SDRs—were arranged directly between parties.

Since the 2021 Spring Meetings, the IEO has concluded its evaluation on Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs and has made significant headway in three other evaluations. Good progress has also been made in following up on past IEO evaluations. However, it was disappointing that the recent implementation plan aimed at strengthening IMF collaboration with the World Bank on climate and other macro-structural issues did not include a commitment to one key Board-endorsed recommendation, specifically to develop a concrete framework for Bank-Fund collaboration on climate issues.

Urgent policy action is needed to control the pandemic, limit scarring, and transform the global economy. The global recovery continues, thanks to unprecedented monetary, fiscal, and financial support over the past year. However, pandemic-induced divergences are persisting, driven by stark differences in access to vaccines and policy space. The Fund will continue to support the membership deal with these ongoing and new challenges. Our priorities are to: vaccinate the world population to stem the spread of pandemic; calibrate policies to limit scarring, support the recovery, and counter growing divergences within and between countries; and accelerate the transformation of the global economy to achieve a more inclusive, greener, and digital recovery.

This Management Implementation Plan (MIP) focuses on further strengthening collaboration between the IMF and the World Bank on strategic macro-structural issues. In macro-structural areas, the Fund and the Bank have complementary roles. The Bank provides structural and development-focused assessments and recommendations, while the Fund focuses on integrating macro relevant structural issues in the macroeconomic frameworks and policies. In some areas, including financial sector and public debt sustainability assessments, Bank-Fund collaboration modalities are well established.

The paper provides brief updates for each CCRT-eligible country on its policy responses to the pandemic and on staff’s assessments of these policies, the use of resources freed up by debt service relief, and the implementation of governance safeguards commitments. The paper also provides an update on the financial situation of the CCRT. The generous support from 17 donor countries and the EU has mobilized SDR 609 million in new pledges since the onset of the pandemic.

For more information, read the press release.

The COVID-19 pandemic put significant pressures on fiscal accounts during 2020 through a contraction of revenues and increased spending needs to tackle the pandemic and its economic fallout. In response to these pressures, the countries benefitting from the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) have faced difficult choices to reprioritize spending, especially capital spending, even as they allowed higher overall fiscal deficits. This note summarizes the findings from the update of the fiscal monitoring system for the COVID-19 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). The DSSI was endorsed by the G20 Finance Ministers on April 15, 2020 and extended twice in October 2020 (until end-June 2021) and April 2021 (until end-2021). During May–December 2020 (the first phase), 43 countries participated, and 42 countries have formally requested their participation in the initiative during January–June 2021 (the second phase, as of July 30, 2021).

Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs

This note provides guidance for staff on the treatment and use of allocations of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). It presents a consistent framework for IMF country teams to assess the macroeconomic implications of the SDR allocation at the country level, covering the following areas: • Statistical and accounting treatment. • General macroeconomic implications and advice. • Debt sustainability analysis. • Transparency and accountability. • Reserve management. • Implications for Fund-supported programs.

For more information, read the press release.

The actions in this document aim at • Bringing the Fund’s framework for advice on capital flow policies up to date with recent research and lessons from experience. • Enhancing and coordinating a Fund-wide research • Ramping up the monitoring and analysis of capital flows. • Strengthening multilateral cooperation on policy issues affecting capital flows.

IMF Strategy to Help Members Address Climate Change Related Policy Challenges—Priorities, Modes of Delivery, and Budget Implications

For more information, read the press release.

This paper presents two new borrowing agreements for the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). These two agreements with the IMF, acting as Trustee for the PRGT, and the Government of Canada and the People’s Bank of China respectively have been finalized as part of the resource mobilization effort in response to the unprecedented demand for concessional financing driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing economic shocks. The fast-track loan mobilization round launched in April 2020 allowed the Fund to increase access limits and scale up emergency financing to low-income countries (LICs). To date, eleven new agreements and the augmentation of five existing agreements have been finalized with sixteen lenders (for previous updates see the October 2020 paper and the March 2021 paper. Together, these agreements and augmentations provide a total of SDR 16.9 billion in new PRGT loan resources for LICs, of which SDR 15.1 billion is immediately available.

Following the companion paper on the new policy challenges related to the adoption of digital forms of money, this paper presents an operational strategy for the IMF to continue delivering on its mandate of ensuring domestic and international financial and economic stability. The paper begins by summarizing the forces driving the adoption of digital forms of money, and the new policy questions that emerge. It then focusses on how the IMF’s core activities and output will need to evolve, including surveillance, capacity development, and analytical foundations. It ends by discusses how the IMF intends to partner with other organization, and to grow and structure internal resources to fulfill this vision.

For more information, read the press release.

Rapid technological innovation is ushering in a new era of public and private digital money, bringing about major benefits in terms of efficiency and inclusion. To reap the full benefits and manage risks, authorities around the world will have to address new policy challenges. These are widespread, complex, rapidly evolving, and have profound implications. This paper identifies the main challenges currently arising regarding consumer protection and financial integrity, domestic financial and economic stability, as well as the stability and efficiency of the international monetary system. The paper argues that many of these challenges intersect the Fund’s mandate. The Fund must therefore monitor, and advise on, this rapid and complex transition for all members. The paper ends with a broad vision of how to deliver on this mandate and serve its members, including by enhancing resources, and collaborating closely with other institutions. This is the first of two papers, the second of which lays out a more detailed operational strategy.

For more information, read the press release.

This paper proposes a package of policy reforms and a funding strategy to ensure that the Fund has the capacity to respond flexibly to LICs’ needs during the pandemic and recovery. The key policy reforms proposed include: • raising the normal annual/cumulative limits on access to PRGT resources to 145/435 percent of quota, the same thresholds for normal access in the GRA; • eliminating the hard limits on exceptional access (EA) to PRGT resources for the poorest LICs, enabling them to obtain all financing on concessional terms if the EA criteria are met; • changes to the framework for blending concessional and non-concessional resources to make it more robust and less complex; • stronger safeguards to address concerns regarding debt sustainability and capacity to repay the Fund; and • retaining zero interest rates on PRGT loans, consistent with the established rules for setting these interest rates.

For more information, read the press release.

An unprecedented policy response and rapid progress in vaccinations have helped pull the global economy from a deep recession, but the outlook is marked by high uncertainty and great divergence. Against this background, the Fund continues its efforts to achieve a durable exit from the crisis, minimize long-term scarring, and build a more sustainable, resilient, and inclusive global economy. In line with the strategic directions laid out in the Spring 2021 Global Policy Agenda and the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Communiqué, this Work Program puts forward a prioritized Board agenda focused on activities of most critical importance to our members.

This report is submitted pursuant to the provisions of the Articles of Agreement regarding a general allocation or cancellation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) for the Twelfth Basic Period that begins on January 1, 2022. The Articles of Agreement provide for periodic consideration and decisions on SDR allocations or cancellations in the context of consecutive basic periods of normally five years of duration (Article XVIII, Section 2(a)). Pursuant to Article XVIII, Section 4(c)(i), the Managing Director must make a proposal to the Board of Governors no later than six months before the end of each basic period regarding a general allocation or cancellation in the next basic period. The Eleventh Basic Period for a general allocation or cancellation of SDRs began on January 1, 2017 and is scheduled to end on December 31, 2021. The Twelfth Basic Period will commence on January 1, 2022.

On June 25, 2021, the Executive Board discussed a staff paper setting forth the considerations underlying the case for a general allocation of special drawing rights (SDRs) of an amount equivalent to US$650 billion (about SDR 456 billion) during the Eleventh Basic Period and the key features that could be included in the Managing Director’s proposal for this general allocation.

On June 25, the Executive Board discussed a proposal for a historic US$650 billion general allocation of SDRs to address the long-term global need to supplement existing reserve assets. Following concurrence by the Executive Board on July 8, the Managing Director submitted the proposal to the Board of Governors on July 9 for its approval by August 2. If approved, which requires an 85 percent majority of the total voting power, the allocation would become effective by the end of August. The proposal makes a case for an allocation of US$650 billion (about SDR 456 billion), based on an assessment of IMF member countries’ long-term global reserve needs. It also includes measures to enhance the transparency and accountability in the reporting and use of SDRs while preserving the reserve asset characteristic of the SDR. The general allocation would help many EMDCs that are liquidity constrained smooth needed adjustment and avoid distortionary policies, while providing scope for spending on crisis response and vaccines.

The G20 has made enhancing cross-border payments a priority and endorsed a comprehensive programme to address the key challenges.1 Faster, cheaper, more transparent and more inclusive cross-border payment services would deliver widespread benefits for citizens and economies worldwide, supporting economic growth, international trade, global development and financial inclusion. To that end, this report takes stock of the international dimension of central bank digital currency (CBDC, see glossary) projects and the extent to which they could be used for cross-border payments.

At the time of the 2005 Review of the Fund’s Transparency Policy, the Executive Board required regular updates on trends in implementing the transparency policy. This report provides an overview of recent developments, reflecting information on documents considered by the Board in 2019 and their respective publication status up to June 2020, and updating the previous annual report on Key Trends.

Extension of the Periods for Consent to and Payment of Quota Increases

List of IMF Member Countries with Delays in Completion of Article IV Consultations or Mandatory Financial Stability Assessments Over 18 Months

To help support members faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fund temporarily increased certain access limits to its emergency financing (EF) instruments, i.e., Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). While this expanded support has been critical to help countries manage the pandemic, the increase in access limits was not applied to the Large Natural Disasters (LND) windows within the EF toolkit, reducing the flexibility to respond to such LNDs. This paper proposes to temporarily increase by 50 percent of quota the annual access limit (AAL) and cumulative access limit (CAL) under the LND windows of the RCF and RFI. The changes to the “LND windows” would be in effect through end-December 2021, in line with the other temporary changes of access limits under EF instruments. The case for further extensions to all the temporarily increased EF AALs and CALs will be examined after the 2021 Annual Meetings.

For more information, read the press release.

This background paper reviews the development of the scope of financial stability assessments under the FSAP since the 2014 FSAP Review. The paper summarizes past experiences of such adaptation and observed trends with respect to the coverage of specific topics and then discusses possible directions to adjust the scope of future FSAPs over the next five years given the likely changes in the financial stability landscape. The paper also discusses collaboration with the World Bank as it pertains to the scope of financial stability assessments. It does not examine issues such as analytical approaches, participation, and resources, which are covered elsewhere in the FSAP Review.

A key criterion for judging the success of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is the extent to which the program has enhanced the IMF’s engagement with policymakers and influenced country policies. This reflects the fact that achieving one of the program’s key objectives—reducing the frequency and severity of financial crises—rests on its ability to encourage policy action by country authorities, either directly or through other bilateral and multilateral activities. The “traction” of FSAPs thus reflects the degree to which the program is seen as useful by the authorities and the effect it has in shaping the domestic policy agenda. And the impact that the FSAP may have on wider domestic and international audiences.

This paper reviews quantitative tools of financial stability assessments under the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). A key focus of FSAPs is on methodologies to gauge risks on a system-wide level and propose mitigating measures. Therefore, the paper concentrates on the main elements of the FSAP’s macroprudential stress testing framework:(i) the interaction among solvency, liquidity, and contagion risks in the banking sector, (ii) the assessment of the health of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), their interactions with banks and their impact on financial markets, (iii) the assessment of the health of nonfinancial sectors and their links to the financial sector, and (iv) macroprudential policy analysis. The paper also reviews recent improvements in microprudential bank solvency stress testing—an important foundation for the macroprudential stress testing framework—and discusses new tools for emerging risks (climate change, fintech, and cyber).

The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Provides in-depth assessments of financial sectors. FSAPs are usually conducted jointly with the World Bank in emerging market and developing economies and by fhe Fund alone in advanced economies. FSAPs provide valuable analysis and policy recommendations for surveillance and capacity development. Since the program’s inception, 157 Fund members have undergone individual or regional FSAPs. In recent years, the Fund has been conducting 12–14 FSAPs per year at a cost of about three percent of the Fund’s direct spending.

For more information, read the press release.

This paper updates the projections of the Fund’s income position for FY 2021 and FY 2022 and proposes decisions for the current and next financial year. The Fund’s overall net income for FY 2021 is projected at about SDR 4.1 billion, higher than both the interim estimate of SDR 3.2 billion and the April 2020 estimate.

For more information, read the press release.

Amidst the unfolding COVID-19 crisis, the Fund faces twin challenges. Signs of early crisis recovery are uneven across countries, and many face daunting crisis legacies. At the same time, longer term challenges from climate change, digitalization and increasing divergence within and between countries demand stepped up effort by the Fund within its areas of expertise and in partnership with others. FY 22-24 budget framework. Considering these challenges and following a decade of flat real budgets, staff will propose a structural augmentation for consideration by fall 2021 to be implemented over two to three years beginning in FY 23.

The Debt Limits Policy (DLP) establishes the framework for using quantitative conditionality to address debt vulnerabilities in IMF-supported programs. In October 2020, the Executive Board approved reforms to the DLP which will enter into effect on June 30, 2021. The risk-based approach to setting debt conditionality informed by Debt Sustainability Analyses under the previous DLP approved in 2014 is maintained. The reforms aim to provide countries with more financing flexibility in practice while still adequately containing debt vulnerabilities through appropriate safeguards. This note provides operational and technical guidance related to the implementation of the DLP, including the operationalization of the approved reforms.

The increase in Fund lending in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, including emergency financing, has led to a record number of requests for financing last year, and to an unprecedented amount of credit outstanding. This underscores the need for appropriate safeguards to the Fund’s balance sheet. Post Program Monitoring (PPM) is one such safeguard, which provides a framework for deeper and closer engagement with members that have substantial outstanding Fund credit but are not in a program relationship.

This note provides general guidance on the use of the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), a non-financing instrument designed for countries that are seeking to unlock financing from multiple sources and/or to demonstrate a commitment to a reform agenda. Since its establishment in 2017 as part of the Fund’s work on the Global Financial Safety Net, the PCI has been used by several members. These early experiences helped establish and refine best practices, which are reflected in the operational guidance note.

While the IMF has been involved in the climate debate since at least 2008, a systematic account of how to integrate climate change into surveillance has been lacking to date. This paper seeks to fill the gap. It argues that domestic policy challenges related to climate change—such as adaptation efforts for climate vulnerable countries, or policies to deliver a country’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris climate accord—are covered by the IMF’s bilateral surveillance mandate and therefore valid topics for Article IV consultations wherever these challenges cross the threshold of macro-criticality. Climate change mitigation is a global policy challenge and therefore falls under multilateral surveillance. The paper proposes a pragmatic approach that focusses especially on the mitigation efforts of the 20 largest emitters of greenhouse gases.

The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.

This note presents key results from the surveys of country authorities, IMF Executive Directors (EDs), and mission chiefs (MCs) to inform the Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR). Key takeaways and cross-cutting themes that emerge are Trends, Policy Challenges, Surveillance Priorities, Surveillance modalities and Traction.

The scenario planning exercises help to draw out the surveillance priorities and stress- test the robustness of those priorities to uncertainties in the decade ahead. To inform the two priorities on confronting risks and uncertainties and mitigating spillovers, the scenarios illustrate how different shocks and alternative policy approaches carry their own risks and can have both positive and negative spillovers. The scenarios also illustrate some of the complex economic and non-economic factors that feed into the priority on economic sustainability and demonstrate how resource constraints and changing economic structures underpin the need for a unified policy approach.

This paper assesses progress made in deepening and integrating systemic risk analysis and macroprudential policy advice in Article IV consultations following up on the findings of the IEO evaluation. The assessment informs the Comprehensive Surveillance Review and the FSAP Review in their recommendations to strengthen these areas in Article IV consultations. The findings point to notable improvements made since the launch of the macrofinancial mainstreaming initiative, particularly in staff reports for advanced economies and in covering bank and credit-related risks.

Modern Fund surveillance needs to be more targeted, topical and timely, better interconnected and better informed. Modernizing surveillance will likely require additional resources, although estimates are highly uncertain at this stage. The paper offers a tentative costing of new proposals with significant budgetary implications. Other proposals could rely on optimizing processes, while others are underway and funded separately; the resource implications of yet others are being picked up in context of other workstreams. Estimates do not include short-term transition costs or pressures on support services and are subject to a significant degree of uncertainty. A flexible approach to implementing the new modalities, characterized by experimentation and learning-by- doing—a “sandbox” for new modalities—is proposed.

For more information, read the press release.

Fund surveillance needs to evolve to face the economic and financial challenges that will shape the global landscape for years to come. This paper first takes stock of the current economic and financial landscape. To better serve the membership in this context, Fund surveillance should be prioritized around four key priorities: (i) confronting risks and uncertainties: policymakers will need to actively manage the risks of a highly uncertain outlook; (ii) preempting and mitigating adverse spillovers: shifting patterns of global economic integration will bring about new channels for contagion and policy spillovers; (iii) fostering economic sustainability: a broader understanding of sustainability to better account for the impact of economic and non-economic developments on stability; and (iv) unified policy advice: better accounting for the trade-offs and synergies among different policy combinations in the face of limited policy space and overlapping priorities, tailored to country-specific circumstances. These priorities should further enhance the traction of Fund surveillance.

For more information, read the press release.

The Fund has a range of modalities and tools to cover spillovers. However, there remains scope to enhance synergies between global and country-specific spillover coverage and to foster cross-country dialogue. Practical guidance and enhanced information-sharing would also allow for more systematic surveillance of spillovers. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to continue expanding the research frontier covering new spillovers and channels and developing new tools and data sets. Therefore, filling these remaining gaps in the Fund’s spillover work would allow for a more coordinated and evenhanded surveillance of spillovers.

Ensuring economic sustainability is key to achieving the IMF’s surveillance mandate of maintaining present and prospective balance of payments and domestic stability, assuring orderly exchange arrangements, and promoting a stable system of exchange rates. A good understanding of issues related to economic sustainability is thus essential for the IMF to provide effective surveillance and policy advice, while it requires a broad perspective and a long time horizon. With respect to the IMF’s surveillance mandate, the principle of macro-criticality, which guides the IMF’s engagement with its members, is sufficiently flexible and broad, allowing the IMF to cover issues related to economic sustainability. At the same time, given the wide range of issues that are related to economic sustainability, IMF surveillance needs to be selective and focused, with the choice of issues made on a case-by-case basis, considering country circumstances. It also needs to leverage the expertise of other institutions when necessary. The IMF and other institutions have advanced work to enhance analytical frameworks and indicators related to economic sustainability, and this should continue.

This paper presents traction as a multidimensional concept and discusses a comprehensive and complementary set of approaches to attempt to measure it based on the Fund’s value added to policy dialogue and formulation and public debate in member countries.