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Assumptions and Conventions
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Preface
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Chapter I. Global Economic Prospects and
Policies
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Advanced Economies
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Developing Countries
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Transition Countries
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Chapter II. Issues in the Current Conjuncture
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Summary of the Projections
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Global Issues
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Advanced Economies
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Developing Countries
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Countries in Transition
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Chapter III. EMU and the World Economy
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EMU: A New Policy Regime
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Establishing the Conditions for a Successful EMU
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Managing Uncertainties in the Preparations for EMU
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External Effects of EMU
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Reaping the Benefits of EMU: The Importance of Fiscal and Labor
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Market Reforms
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Chapter IV. Exchange Rate Arrangements and Economic Performance in Developing
Countries
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Changing Pattern of Exchange Rate Arrangements
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Factors Underlying the Evolution of Exchange Rate Arrangements
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Analytical Issues in the Choice of Regime
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Macroeconomic Characteristics of Exchange Rate Regimes
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Exchange Rate Arrangements—Problems and Policies
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Challenges of Rapid Growth and Capital Inflows for Exchange Rate Regimes
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Capital Account Convertibility
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Chapter V. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies in Transition Countries
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Recent Conduct of Monetary Policy
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Development of Market-Based Instruments for Monetary Policy
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Development of Efficient Banking Systems
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Other Factors Affecting Conduct and Transmission of Monetary Policy
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New Challenges for Monetary Policy
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Tables
Chapter
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II
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1.
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Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
PDF version of Table 1 Use the free
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2.
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Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
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3.
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Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
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4.
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Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
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5.
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Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
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6.
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Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
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7.
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Capital Flows to Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, And Newly Industrialized
Economies
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8.
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Major Industrial Countries: Questions About Inflationary Pressures
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9.
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Selected Latin American Countries: Macroeconomic Indicators Of Cyclical Change
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10.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Economic Developments and Their Distribution
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III
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11.
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European Union: Convergence Indicators for 1996, 1997, and 1998
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12.
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United States, Japan, and the European Union: Economic Size and Relative Use of
Currencies
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13.
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Implications of EMU for Europe and the Rest of the World—Simulation Results
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IV
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14.
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Developing Countries: Officially Reported Exchange Rate Arrangements
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15.
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Geographical Distribution of Officially Reported Exchange Rate Arrangements
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16.
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Implicit Weights of U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen in Nominal Values of Selected Asian
Currencies
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17.
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Considerations in the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime
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18.
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Exchange Rate Regime and Main Source of Export Earnings
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19.
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Currency Crashes by Exchange Rate Regime
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V
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20.
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Countries in Transition: Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Policy Instruments, August
1997
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21.
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Countries in Transition: Annual Growth Rates of Broad Money and Domestic Credit
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22.
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Countries in Transition: Real Interest Rates
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23.
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Countries in Transition: Income Velocity of Broad Money
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24.
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Countries in Transition: Money Multipliers
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25.
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Russia and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Rankings Of Progress with
Establishment of Market-Based Monetary Operations And Governments Securities Markets
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26.
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Selected Countries in Transition: Interest Rate Spread
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27.
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Countries in Transition: Dollarization Ratios
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28.
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Selected Countries in Transition: Net Capital Inflows
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Figures
Chapter
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I
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1.
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World Output and Inflation
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2.
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European Union: General Government Budget
Positions
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3.
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Changing Relative Positions in the World Economy
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II
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4.
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Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
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5.
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Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Conditions Indices
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6.
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Three Major Industrial Countries: Policy-Related Interest Rates And Ten-Year Government
Bond Yields
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7.
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European Union and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence
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8.
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Selected Advanced Economies: Inflation
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9.
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Developing Countries: Inflation
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10.
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Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
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11.
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Equity Prices
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12.
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Major Industrial Countries: Average Earnings and Unit Labor Costs in the Manufacturing
Sector
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13.
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Commodity Prices
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14.
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Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
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15.
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Selected Advanced Economies: Employment and Unemployment
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16.
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Selected Advanced Economies: Unemployment Rates
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17.
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Japan: Output Developments
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18.
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India and Pakistan: Macroeconomic Indicators
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III
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19.
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Trade Within the European Union
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20.
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Selected Advanced Economies: Openness
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21.
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European Union: Inflation and General Government Balance
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22.
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European Union: Inflation, General Government Balance, and Gross Debt
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23.
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Selected Developing and Transition Countries: Trade and Financial Links with the European
Union
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24.
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Selected Developing and Transition Countries: Shares of Trade With the European Union
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IV
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25.
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Developing Countries: Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes
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26.
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Developing Countries: Share of Output and Trade by Exchange Rate Regime
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27.
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Developing Countries: Growth and Inflation by Exchange Rate Regime
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28.
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Developing Countries: Openness by Exchange Rate Regime
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29.
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Developing Countries: Exchange Rate Movements of Countries with Pegged and Countries
with Official Declared Flexible Exchange Rate Arrangements
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V
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30.
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Selected Countries in Transition: Inflation
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31.
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Latvia, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Importance of Seigniorage
in
1996
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Boxes
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1.
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Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections
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2.
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Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for Japan
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3.
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The European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact
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4.
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Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United States
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5.
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Currency Boards
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6.
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Dollarization
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7.
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Financial Sector Problems and Monetary Policy in Countries in Transition
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8.
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Relative Price Adjustment and Price Convergence in Transition Countries
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9.
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Hong Kong, China: Economic Linkages and Institutional Arrangements
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10.
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Scenario Assumptions
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Annexes
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I.
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China—Growth and Economic Reform
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II.
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Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMU
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Statistical Appendix
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