| Executive Summary |
| |
|
| I. |
Introduction |
| |
| II. |
Recent Oil Price Increases in Perspective
and
Prospects for the Future |
|
A.
|
Significance of Recent Price Movements |
|
B.
|
Factors Behind Price Increases and Prospects for the
Future |
|
|
The role of commodity trading |
|
C.
|
What Hinders Investment in the Oil Sector? |
|
|
Background |
|
|
Obstacles to investment |
|
|
Prospects for future investment |
|
|
Conclusions |
| |
| III. |
The Impact of Oil Market Developments
on the Global Economy |
|
A.
|
Impact of Recent Price Movements |
|
|
Global effects |
|
|
The likely impact of the higher
prices so far |
|
|
Recycling and possible impact on
financial markets |
|
B.
|
What if—the Likely Impact of Much Higher Oil
Prices |
|
|
Introduction |
|
|
Impact of much higher oil prices
on advanced economies |
|
|
Impact on emerging market and developing
countries |
| |
| IV. |
Impact of Higher Prices on Exporters |
| |
| V. |
Financing Needs for Developing Countries
from Higher
Oil Prices |
|
A.
|
Estimates of the Incremental Potential Financing Gap |
|
B.
|
The Mix between Adjustment and Financing |
|
C.
|
Projected Need for Additional Use of Fund Resources |
| |
| VI. |
Policy Response to Higher Oil Prices |
|
A.
|
Background |
|
B.
|
Near-Term Policy Responses |
|
|
Net petroleum exporters |
|
|
Net petroleum importers |
|
|
Short-run domestic petroleum pricing |
|
C.
|
External Financing and Use of Fund Resources |
|
D.
|
Selected Structural Issues |
|
|
Domestic petroleum price and taxation
regimes |
|
|
Oil revenue issues and investments
in the oil sector |
|
|
Oil funds |
|
E.
|
Transparency |
| |
| VII. |
The Scope for Producer and Consumer Action
and Cooperation |
| |
| VIII. |
Progress on Data Transparency Issues in
Oil Markets |
| |
Data production |
| |
Main weaknesses in the data |
|
|
Progress so far |
|
|
Looking ahead |
| |
| IX. |
Issues for Discussion |
| |
|
Tables
|
| 1. |
Global Oil Market: Demand, Capacity, and Prices |
| 2. |
Impact of Nominal Oil Price Hikes |
| 3. |
Impact of an $80 Price of Oil in 2005 |
| 4. |
Impact on GDP Growth in Developing and Emerging Market
Net Oil Importing
Countries |
| 5. |
Hydrocarbon Net Exporting Countries’ Oil and
Natural Gas Export and Fiscal Revenue
in 2003 |
| 6. |
Oil and Gas Export and Revenue Windfalls |
| 7. |
Impact of the Change in Hydrocarbon Revenue on Key
Indicators |
| 8. |
Impact of the Change in Hydrocarbon Revenue on Key
Fiscal Indicators, by Income Group |
| 9. |
Share of the Windfall Saved in Special Funds |
| 10. |
Impact of Higher Oil Prices |
| 11. |
Adjustment/Financing Mix in 2005 |
| |
| Figures |
| 1. |
Selected Prices of Crude Oil |
| 2. |
Oil Intensity |
| 3. |
OPEC Crude Oil Production with Total and Spare Production
Capacity |
| 4. |
Total Global Drilling Rigs and Real Petroleum Spot
Price |
| 5. |
Spread Between the West Texas Intermediate and Dubai
Fateh Crude Oil Spot Price,
and the Average Petroleum Spot Price |
| 6. |
Proven World Oil Reserves Excluding Canadian Oil Sands;
and OPEC and Non-OPEC Crude Oil Reserves |
| 7. |
Average Petroleum Spot Price and Excess Capacity |
| 8. |
Transparency in Uses of the Hydrocarbon Windfall |
| |
| Boxes |
| 1. |
Recent Changes in Composition and Activities of Energy
Traders and Investors |
| 2. |
Hotelling’s Rule for Optimal Resource Management |
| 3. |
Managing Natural Resource Windfalls—Country
Experience |
| 4. |
Domestic Petroleum Price Reform |
| 5. |
Oil Funds—Selected Examples |
