Group of Twenty IMF Report — 2022 G20 Bali Summit
G-20 Report on Strong, Sustainable, Balanced, and Inclusive Growth, November 2022
November 2022
Prepared by IMF Staff
Read the Full text 
Executive Summary
The global economy has weakened amid a materializing of downside risks. Three key factors are weighing on the global growth outlook: (i) persistently high and broad-based inflation is necessitating a tightening of monetary policy in many major economies; (ii) the growth momentum in China remains weak amid intermittent pandemic lockdowns and the worsening property market crisis; and (iii) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and associated sanctions have contributed to continued supply disruptions, rising food insecurity, and energy concerns—particularly in Europe amid a sharp reduction in Russian gas supply. At the same time, growing global fragmentation pressures are likely to destroy part of the gains from decades of increasing globalization. Add to this a confluence of downside risks. A worsening energy crisis in Europe would severely harm growth and raise inflation. Prolonged high inflation could require larger-than-anticipated policy interest hikes, further tightening of global financial conditions, and increasing risks of a sovereign debt crisis for vulnerable economies. Increasingly severe weather events would continue to harm growth across the globe.
Bringing down inflation is a key policy priority, as is addressing elevated debt levels while protecting the most vulnerable groups. The persistence of multiple global supply-side shocks also necessitates a tighter policy stance to facilitate adjustment to the new state of the world.
- Monetary policy is appropriately expected to continue to tighten in most G-20 countries, although the extent of tightening is country specific. Where inflation remains high and labor markets tight, higher interest rates are needed. In a few cases where inflationary pressures and signs of overheating are absent, central banks can be more cautious and allow a more expansionary stance. In all economies, careful communication is crucial, especially amid the highly uncertainty outlook.
- Fiscal policy will need to tighten in many economies to address debt vulnerabilities and avoid working against monetary policy efforts to reduce inflation. Targeted support for vulnerable groups struggling with the surge in inflation and energy prices should be offset by savings elsewhere.
A strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive recovery requires joint action by the G-20.
- The G-20 plays a crucial role in maintaining and improving global trade and investment linkages. Securing peace in Ukraine is essential. At the same time, the G-20 can take actions to address global challenges and help prevent further fragmentation. More open, stable, and transparent rules-based trade would help address global shortages of goods. Strengthening the resilience of global value chains would help protect against future shocks.
- The richest economies must stay committed to continued support for the poorest ones. As the crisis continues to unfold, the financing needs of developing economies continue to grow. The G-20 has already helped provide valuable debt service relief. But more needs to be done to help governments meet the needs of their populations at this time of crisis, including in the form of concessional financing, debt relief, and grants.
- A durable recovery requires multilateral action on climate, debt, taxation, and pandemic preparedness. An effective policy package is crucial to reach climate goals under the Paris Agreement. In addition, greater progress is needed on efforts to tackle elevated debt levels amid high borrowing costs in several vulnerable emerging market and low-income economies, including by strengthening the G-20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments. Implementation of the agreement on international taxation should be accelerated. Multilateral action should continue to build on the progress made on pandemic preparedness.
This report discusses the G-20’s progress during the past year towards the goal of strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth and provides policy recommendations to help reach this goal. The report was prepared under the guidance of Shekhar Aiyar by a team led by Lone Christiansen and comprising Jared Bebee, Chanpheng Fizzarotti, Tryggvi Gudmundsson (co-lead), Ashique Habib, Jaden Kim, Kyuho Lee, Adil Mohommad, Chao Wang, and Bryan Zou. Ilse Peirtsegaele provided administrative support. Prepared based on information available as of November 3, 2022. The report does not necessarily reflect the views of G-20 members. Past G-20 SSBIG reports are available on IMF.org.
Read the Full text