Yemen Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility
Medium-Term Economic and Financial Policy Framework Paper 1999-2001
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view Table 1 and Table 5.
Contents
Tables
Table 2. Republic of Yemen: Selected Economic Indicators, 1995-2001
|
|
|
|
|
|
Est. |
Projections
|
|
|
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
|
|
(Change in percent) |
|
Production and prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nominal GDP at market prices |
66.6 |
46.3 |
13.0 |
-1.6 |
14.9 |
12.9 |
10.8 |
|
Real GDP at market prices |
8.6 |
5.6 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
5.3 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
|
Real non-oil GDP |
7.3 |
4.1 |
5.3 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
|
Real oil GDP |
15.3 |
13.5 |
4.7 |
1.2 |
10.4 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
|
Consumer price index (annual average) |
62.5 |
27.3 |
6.3 |
11.1 |
9.2 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
Crude oil price
(weighted average, US$ per barrel) |
16.9 |
20.3 |
18.5 |
11.9 |
12.0 |
13.1 |
13.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(In percent of GDP) |
|
Government finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenue and grants |
21.3 |
38.4 |
37.7 |
30.4 |
31.1 |
32.4 |
32.1 |
|
Oil revenue |
10.4 |
27.2 |
25.8 |
16.2 |
16.6 |
17.8 |
17.3 |
|
Non-oil revenue |
10.6 |
11.0 |
11.3 |
13.7 |
13.7 |
13.9 |
14.1 |
|
Grants |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
Total expenditure |
25.5 |
41.9 |
40.0 |
36.8 |
35.2 |
35.3 |
34.4 |
|
Current |
22.2 |
34.8 |
32.2 |
30.8 |
28.0 |
27.4 |
26.5 |
|
Development |
3.4 |
7.1 |
7.8 |
6.0 |
7.2 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
|
Overall balance incl. grants (cash basis) |
-3.2 |
-1.6 |
-0.9 |
-6.0 |
-4.0 |
-2.7 |
-2.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(12-month change in percent of initial broad money) |
|
Monetary data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Broad money |
20.4 |
8.6 |
10.7 |
11.7 |
8.0 |
... |
... |
|
Credit to nongovernment sector |
3.7 |
-4.1 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
5.4 |
... |
... |
|
Benchmark deposit interest rate |
20.0 |
25.0 |
11.0 |
15.0 |
... |
... |
... |
|
Velocity (Non-oil GDP/average M2) |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
... |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(In millions of U.S. dollars) |
|
External sector |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exports, f.o.b., of which: |
1,980 |
2,263 |
2,264 |
1,517 |
1,703 |
1,840 |
1,858 |
|
Crude oil |
1,735 |
1,976 |
1,935 |
1,231 |
1,389 |
1,498 |
1,490 |
|
Imports, f.o.b. |
-1,831 |
-2,294 |
-2,407 |
2,203 |
2,261 |
-2,385 |
-2,462 |
|
Services (net) |
-460 |
-370 |
-432 |
-393 |
-381 |
-388 |
-378 |
|
Private remittances and transfers (net) |
1,104 |
1,123 |
1,571 |
1,191 |
1,211 |
1,230 |
1,279 |
|
Capital account (net) |
-826 |
-397 |
10 |
-263 |
46 |
4 |
203 |
|
Overall balance |
-553 |
-393 |
139 |
-471 |
-101 |
-136 |
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Central Bank own gross foreign reserves |
525 |
937 |
1,152 |
850 |
1,001 |
1,088 |
1,099 |
|
In months of imports 1 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
5.3 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
|
Current account, incl. grants (in percent of GDP) |
4.0 |
1.9 |
0.4 |
-5.2 |
-2.7 |
-2.4 |
-2.3 |
|
Debt service ratios (government) 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Before rescheduling |
38.6 |
33.0 |
13.6 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
9.7 |
|
After rescheduling |
... |
... |
3.7 |
6.8 |
7.5 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
|
Official external debt |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Before rescheduling |
8,924 |
9,085 |
4,490 |
4,703 |
5,027 |
5,244 |
5,306 |
|
(In percent of GDP) |
184.0 |
161.5 |
78.4 |
88.2 |
92.4 |
90.4 |
86.7 |
|
After rescheduling |
... |
... |
3,924 |
3,730 |
3,962 |
4,127 |
4,189 |
|
(In percent of GDP) |
... |
... |
68.5 |
69.9 |
72.8 |
71.2 |
68.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terms of trade (1996=100) |
85.3 |
100.0 |
100.7 |
71.9 |
71.5 |
76.5 |
76.4 |
|
Exchange rate (free market, eop) (YRl/US$) |
127.1 |
126.9 |
130.5 |
141.7 |
... |
... |
... |
|
Real effective exchange rate (1996=100) 3 |
75.9 |
100.0 |
111.7 |
117.4 |
... |
... |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources: Yemeni authorities; Fund staff estimates and projections.
1/
Excludes commercial bank foreign exchange deposits held with the central bank. Imports are for the current
year and exclude oil and gas sector imports.
2/
Public- and publicly-guaranteed debt including central bank foreign liabilities. In percent of exports of goods and services.
3/
Based on free market rate.
|
Table 3. Republic of Yemen: Income and Social Indicators, 1995-2001
|
|
|
Unit of |
|
|
|
|
Program
|
|
|
Measure |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
|
Population |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Population (mid-year) |
Million |
15.3 |
15.7 |
16.1 |
16.5 |
17.0 |
17.4 |
17.8 |
|
Urban Population |
Percent |
33.6 |
34.4 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Population growth |
Percent |
3.3 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
|
Total fertility rate |
Percent |
7.4 |
7.2 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GNP per capita |
US$ |
260 |
324 |
354 |
321 |
319 |
332 |
341 |
|
Consumer price index |
(December 1994=100) |
161 |
211 |
222 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Food price index |
(December 1994=100) |
150 |
194 |
201 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social indicators |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share of public expenditure |
Percent of GDP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Health |
|
... |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
|
Education |
|
... |
3.6 |
5.3 |
8.1 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
8.3 |
|
Social safety net |
|
... |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
|
Net primary school enrollment rate |
Percent of age group |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
76 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Male |
|
112 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Female |
|
37 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Access to safe water |
Percent of population |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
52 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Urban |
|
88 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Rural |
|
|
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Immunization rate under 12 months |
Percent |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Measles |
|
49 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
DPT |
|
52 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Child (under 5) malnutrition rate |
Percent |
30 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Life expectancy at birth |
Years |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
53 |
54 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Male |
|
53 |
54 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Female |
|
54 |
54 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Infant mortality rate |
Per 1,000 live births |
100 |
98 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Under 5 mortality rate |
Per 1,000 live births |
145 |
130 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
Maternal mortality ratio |
Per 100,000 live births |
1,471 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources: Yemeni authorities; World Bank; and Fund staff estimates. |
Table 4. Republic of Yemen:
External Financing Requirements, 1995-2003 1
|
|
|
|
|
ESAF/EFF Program
|
|
|
|
|
|
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
|
|
|
(In millions of U.S. dollars) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross external financing requirement |
-173 |
-197 |
-6,398 |
-410 |
-1,490 |
-465 |
-373 |
-376 |
-345 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Own current account (excluding interest
obligations, official grants, and oil company
transactions)
|
80 |
-89 |
-147 |
-493 |
-444 |
-460 |
-450 |
-451 |
-461 |
|
Interest obligations |
-144 |
-122 |
-97 |
-66 |
-74 |
-54 |
-54 |
-60 |
-65 |
|
Amortization obligations |
-747 |
-659 |
-232 |
-224 |
-207 |
-177 |
-124 |
-116 |
-101 |
|
Foreign oil companies' transactions, net |
0 |
190 |
37 |
32 |
66 |
61 |
44 |
44 |
47 |
|
Oil sector trade credits and loans, net |
-33 |
-64 |
64 |
23 |
-6 |
10 |
15 |
12 |
-1 |
|
Private capital, net |
50 |
80 |
245 |
150 |
234 |
245 |
255 |
265 |
270 |
|
Wheat import financing, net |
68 |
167 |
-79 |
-187 |
0 |
-103 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Net reserves buildup (-) (excluding AMF and
IMF purchases and repurchases) |
-192 |
-148 |
-155 |
360 |
126 |
104 |
-118 |
-91 |
-51 |
|
Net AMF purchases |
7 |
1 |
8 |
-11 |
17 |
-3 |
-10 |
-3 |
0 |
|
Net IMF purchases |
0 |
121 |
139 |
71 |
143 |
95 |
-47 |
-18 |
-18 |
|
Change in overdue obligations |
751 |
568 |
-5,886 |
54 |
-1,025 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Late interest charges, of which: |
... |
... |
-561 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Russian Federation |
... |
... |
-542 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regular financing |
93 |
206 |
243 |
226 |
281 |
266 |
272 |
255 |
286 |
|
Grants |
40 |
68 |
91 |
64 |
102 |
107 |
113 |
119 |
124 |
|
Loans |
53 |
138 |
152 |
162 |
178 |
159 |
160 |
136 |
162 |
|
Of which: IDA (pipeline) |
|
95 |
89 |
120 |
117 |
60 |
18 |
5 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Errors and omissions |
80 |
-102 |
107 |
67 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exceptional Financing, of which: |
0 |
93 |
6,048 |
117 |
1,209 |
199 |
138 |
156 |
82 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Secured debt relief |
0 |
93 |
6,048 |
117 |
85 |
85 |
38 |
36 |
24 |
|
IDA (new) 2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
50 |
74 |
100 |
120 |
58 |
|
Pending debt relief 3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1,074 |
39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources: Central Bank of Yemen; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1/ Incorporates the November 1997 Paris Club rescheduling.
2/ Includes the budget management loan of $50 million for 1999, and other expected balance of payment support for outer years.
3/ Under the assumption that non-Paris Club creditors would provide debt relief on at least comparable terms as the 1997 Paris Club rescheduling.
|
TABLE OF CONTENTS
|
