Policy Papers
2017
May 31, 2017
Second Review of the Implementation of Government Finance Statistics Framework to Strengthen Fiscal Analysis
Description:
This paper reports on the further developments since 2013 in the implementation of the 2010 Board decision concerning Government Finance Statistics (GFS) to Strengthen Fiscal Analysis, and develops a path to continued improvement of fiscal data in the Fund. The Board decision approved (i) developing a staggered migration strategy, including tailored capacity development inside and outside the Fund taking into consideration country-specific and fiscal surveillance needs; (ii) encouraging staff to continue the effort to routinely assess financial balance sheets during surveillance; (iii) gradually expanding the coverage of fiscal data, taking into consideration country-specific circumstances and fiscal risk assessments; and (iv) reaffirming the support for the phased implementation of the GFS over the medium term.
May 30, 2017
Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2017 and FY 2018
Description:
The Fund’s total net income for FY 2017, including surcharges, is projected at about SDR 1.7 billion or some SDR 0.7 billion higher than expected in April 2016. This mainly reflects the IAS 19 adjustment (relating to reporting of employee benefits), which is expected to contribute about SDR 0.4 billion to net income, and higher investment income. Lending income is expected to be modestly lower than the April 2016 estimates.
The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 1.2 billion for FY 2017 (which excludes projected income of the gold endowment), be placed equally to the special and general reserve. After the placement of GRA FY 2017 net income to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 16.4 billion at the end of FY 2017. The paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase in the Fund’s reserves from the GRA to the Investment Account.
In April 2016, the margin for the rate of charge was set at 100 basis points for the two years FY 2017 and FY 2018. The margin may be adjusted before the end of the first year of this two-year period (i.e., FY 2017) but only if warranted by fundamental changes in the underlying factors relevant for the establishment of the margin at the start of the two-year period. Staff does not propose a change in the margin.
The projections for FY 2018 point to a net income position of SDR 0.7 billion. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions.
May 23, 2017
Eligibility to Use the Fund's Facilities for Concessional Financing for 2017
Description:
The review of PRGT-eligibility, conducted biennially, is guided by a
transparent, rules-based, and parsimonious framework. The framework
determines which IMF members can access concessional resources based on an
assessment of their level of income per capita, market access, and serious
short-term vulnerabilities. Application of the framework should be
consistent with the self-sustainability of the PRGT’s lending capacity over
time.
This paper concludes that the existing framework remains generally
appropriate. The PRGT-eligibility framework is broadly aligned with the
World Bank’s International Development Association practices, with minor
differences between the lists of eligible countries explained by
differences in the mandates of the two institutions and the timing of their
respective review cycles. None of the countries that have graduated from
the PRGT-eligibility list are at immediate risk of re-entering it.
No country is proposed for graduation from or entry onto the
PRGT-eligibility list. While thirteen countries meet either the income or
market access graduation criterion, all are assessed to be facing serious
short-term vulnerabilities and thus none are proposed for graduation. No
non-PRGT-eligible country meets the criteria for entry onto the
PRGT-eligibility list.
The proposal to keep the list of PRGT-eligible countries unchanged is
consistent with the self-sustained capacity of the PRGT.
May 22, 2017
State-Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns - Annexes
Description: These annexes accompany the IMF Policy Paper State Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns
May 22, 2017
State-Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns
Description:
Background. The case for sovereign state-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) as a countercyclical and risk-sharing tool has been around for some time and remains appealing; but take-up has been limited. Earlier staff work had advocated the use of growth-indexed bonds in emerging markets and contingent financial instruments in low-income countries. In light of recent renewed interest among academics, policymakers, and market participants—staff has analyzed the conceptual and practical issues SCDIs raise with a view to accelerate the development of self-sustaining markets in these instruments. The analysis has benefited from broad consultations with both private market participants and policymakers.
The economic case for SCDIs. By linking debt service to a measure of the sovereign’s capacity to pay, SCDIs can increase fiscal space, and thus allow greater policy flexibility in bad times. They can also broaden the sovereign’s investor base, open opportunities for risk diversification for investors, and enhance the resilience of the international financial system. Should SCDI issuance rise to account for a large share of public debt, it could also significantly reduce the incidence and cost of sovereign debt crises. Some potential complications require mitigation: a high novelty and liquidity premium demanded by investors in the early stage of market development; adverse selection and moral hazard risks; undesirable pricing effects on conventional debt; pro-cyclical investor demand; migration of excessive risk to the private sector; and adverse political economy incentives.
May 15, 2017
Large Natural Disasters--Enhancing the Financial Safety Net for Developing Countries
Description:
The Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) are valuable components of the disaster risk financing tool kit for Fund members, especially developing countries. They help to meet urgent balance of payments needs, and are designed to play a catalytic role in mobilizing other external financing.
This paper develops proposals for a higher annual access limit under the RCF and RFI, building on a November 2016 staff paper on small states’ resilience to natural disasters and climate change (IMF, 2016c). Directors generally supported the proposal in that paper to establish higher annual access limits of 60 percent of quota under the RCF and RFI for countries experiencing severe natural disaster-related damages.
The focus of this paper is to specify the threshold of damage from a natural disaster that would allow members experiencing urgent balance of payments needs arising from such disasters to access emergency financing at the higher annual limit. In the November 2016 paper, staff proposed, among other things, the possibility of establishing a higher access limit under the RCF and RFI where the amount of damage reached the threshold of 30 percent of GDP. Most Directors regarded the proposed threshold of disaster damage as overly restrictive, and suggested lowering the threshold to 20 percent of GDP or lower, provided that this did not jeopardize the self-sustainability of the PRGT. For a range of future disaster outcomes, a damage threshold of 20 percent of GDP could increase projected annual average PRGT loan demand in the 1-5 percent range over the next decade, which should not pose significant risks to the robustness of PRGT self-sustainability. Cautious stewardship of PRGT resources argues against a lower disaster damage threshold, pending further experience with disaster trends and associated PRGT loan demand.
This paper does not propose changes to the current cumulative access limits for the RCF and RFI. The cumulative access limits play an important role in the Fund’s financing architecture, constraining the extent to which countries can access Fund resources without implementing a Fund-supported program with upper credit tranche (UCT) conditionality and associated policies in circumstances where such a program would be more appropriate. The Board will have the opportunity to review the cumulative access limits in the context
May 13, 2017
Gender Budgeting in G7 Countries
Description:
At the request of the Italian Presidency of the G7, the IMF has prepared a
paper on gender-budgeting as a contribution to the G7 initiative on
equality. The paper provides an overview of gender-responsive budgeting
concepts and practices in the G7 countries. It summarizes recent trends in
gender equality in G7 and advanced countries, noting that while equality
has improved overall, exceptions and gaps remain. Recognizing that many
fiscal policies have gender-related implications, this paper:
The main policy implications and conclusions of the paper include:
May 12, 2017
FY2018–FY2020 Medium-Term Budget
Description:
The Fund has been operating under a flat real resource envelope for the past six years. With continued efforts to maximize the use of available resources, spending in FY 17 is projected to reach 99 percent of the net administrative budget, and a low vacancy rate has helped stabilize overtime at 11 percent. Internal savings and reallocations have allowed the Fund to dedicate more resources to country work, including capacity development, without requiring an increase in the approved budget—apart from $6 million provided in FY 17 to cover rising security costs.
An unchanged real net administrative budget in FY 18, despite deeper Fund engagement in a number of areas, as well as increased costs for corporate modernization. Accordingly, the budget proposal incorporates significant savings from reallocations and efficiency gains to fund new demands, as well as a further increase in the upfront allocation of carry-forward funds by about $10 million. The broad themes of the proposal are: (i) more intensive country work with a shift from surveillance to programs, but net savings in field offices; (ii) significant policy and analytical work on the financial sector and the role of the Fund (global safety net, facilities, and quotas), albeit less than in FY 17, with more work on structural issues and new challenges; (iii) funding for transforming IT and HR services, offset by central savings; and (iv) enhanced risk mitigation and knowledge management (KM), with the establishment of a KM unit to support cross-country analysis and knowledge transfer.
At this stage, a flat resource envelope is assumed also for the medium term, contingent on continued reprioritization and a broadly unchanged global economic environment. Upward pressure on resources will arise from growing capacity development activities and certain revenue losses. Savings are expected from the TransformIT initiative and internal efficiency gains. But for the budget to remain flat, the Fund will need to continuously reprioritize and adjust its activities to make room for new demands. Even then, a more challenging global environment, with a further ramping up of Fund lending, or significant demands for deeper engagement in other areas, would put significant strains on resources over the medium term.
The proposed capital budget envelope for FY 18–20 remains broadly unchanged from current levels. Some frontloading, however, is planned for the first two years, due to the cyclical nature of these investments and to accommodate strategic IT projects.
May 9, 2017
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust - 2017 Borrowing Agreements with the Bank of Spain, the Government of Japan and the People's Bank of China
Description:
The Fund, as Trustee of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT or Trust), has entered into a new borrowing agreement with the Bank of Spain (Spain), amendments to the 2010 NPA with the Government of Japan (Japan), and a new note purchase agreement (NPA) with the People’s Bank of China (China). The new borrowing agreement with Spain, the amendments to the NPA with Japan, and the new NPA with China provide new resources of SDR 450 million, SDR 1.8 billion and SDR 800 million, respectively, to the General Loan Account of the PRGT for a total amount of SDR 3.05 billion in new PRGT lending resources. The new borrowing agreement, the augmentation under the amended NPA and the new NPA are among the first ten loan contributions concluded in the context of the current Board endorsed effort to raise SDR 11 billion in new PRGT loan resources. These became effective on February 22, 2017, for Spain; April 20, 2017, for Japan; and April 21, 2017, for China. Pursuant to Section III, paragraph 2 of the Instrument to establish the PRGT, the Managing Director is authorized to enter into borrowing agreements and agree to their terms and conditions with lenders to the Loan Accounts of the Trust. This paper presents to the Executive Board for information the new borrowing agreement with Spain, the amendments to augment the existing agreement with Japan, and the new NPA with China. The new borrowing agreement with Spain and NPA with China incorporate the following recent changes to the Fund’s framework for concessional lending to low income countries, which have also been adopted, as applicable, in prior amendments to the agreement with Japan: (i) the extensions of the commitments and drawdown period for PRGT loans to end-2020 and end-2024, respectively; (ii) the incorporation of the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) interest rate instrument of six month maturity for borrowing agreements in currencies; and (iii) the provision that, if the derived six-month SDR interest rate formula results in a negative rate, the applicable interest rate shall be zero percent. With respect to the amendment of the NPA with Japan, in addition to increasing the principal amount of notes that can be issued under the NPA, Japan’s agreement was also modified to: (i) provide more flexibility in the media of payment for purchases under the NPA; (ii) set up a maximum amount for monthly purchases under the NPA; and (iii) to establish a preferred media for payments of interest and principal amount of the notes issued under the NPA. Except for these changes, all other elements of the NPA with Japan remain unchanged.
April 27, 2017
New Common Evaluation Framework for IMF Capacity Development
Description:
This document outlines a new common evaluation framework for the Fund’s capacity development (CD) activities. The new common evaluation framework is intended to streamline current practices and increase comparability and use of results by adopting for all CD evaluations a common four-step process that includes use of the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) evaluation criteria. Around this common approach, there is flexibility to adapt evaluations to reflect the wide range of CD activities. Key elements of the framework are grouped around the objectives of: producing shorter, more focused, and more comparable evaluations; improving the information supporting evaluations;spending the same level of resources on evaluations while allocating these scarce resources more efficiently; and using the information from evaluations to alter practices or shift the targeting of CD resources.