Policy Papers
2017
December 14, 2017
Gulf Cooperation Council: Strengthening Liquidity Management Frameworks in Support of Stability and Growth in the GCC
Description:
Effective liquidity management is important to promote macro-financial stability in the GCC countries. Fixed exchange rate regimes provide credible nominal anchors in the GCC countries, but combined with open capital accounts, they also entail limited monetary policy independence. At the same time, high dependence on hydrocarbon revenue has made the region vulnerable to oil price-driven liquidity swings. And the latter can affect monetary policy implementation, including by exacerbating credit and asset price cycles. This highlights the importance of frameworks aimed at forecasting liquidity and ensuring appropriate liquidity levels through the timely absorption or injection of liquidity by central banks.
Over the past decade, liquidity management in the GCC countries has been based mainly on passive instruments. Abundant liquidity during times of high oil prices have placed liquidity absorption at the center of the central bank operations. Reserve requirements have helped absorb liquidity but have not been used very actively. Standing facilities, another key instrument, are more passive in nature, with the amount of liquidity absorbed or injected driven by banks rather than monetary authorities. Central banks bills or other instruments have also been used, but issuance has not systematically been based on market principles. In addition, these operations have been constrained by limited liquidity forecasting capability and the shallow nature of interbank and domestic debt markets.
December 14, 2017
Gulf Cooperation Council: How Can Growth-Friendlier Expenditure-Based Fiscal Adjustment be Achieved in the GCC?
Description:
After years of rapid growth in expenditure, GCC governments have started to implement significant fiscal consolidation measures, but more needs to be done. Rapid population growth and booming oil revenues led to large increases in government spending in the GCC in the decade to 2014, which now stands high by international standards. This expenditure is dominated by compensation of employees and other current spending which are large in percent of GDP compared to Emerging Market (EM) countries and other oil exporters. This keeps overall spending above levels consistent with long-term fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity. The international experience with large fiscal adjustments provides some key lessons for GCC countries. This experience suggests that growth outcomes improve when fiscal adjustments are sustained as part of credible multi-year fiscal plans, rely on expenditure more than revenue adjustment, and lead to improvements in expenditure composition (away from current outlays to more productive spending) and the structure of revenue (away from direct to indirect taxation). Successful fiscal adjustments also tend to be part of wider structural reforms that support growth.
December 11, 2017
Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board Executive Board Meeting
Description:
This Work Program (WP) translates the strategic directions and policy priorities laid out in the Fall 2017 Global Policy Agenda (GPA) and the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Communiqué into an Executive Board agenda for the next twelve months, with a focus on the next six months.
The Managing Director’s GPA, fully supported by the IMFC, called on members to take advantage of the window of opportunity from the more favorable conjuncture to tackle key policy challenges by undertaking well-sequenced reforms to increase productivity, reduce policy uncertainty and future risks, and improve governance. Reforms should also aim to harness the benefits of technology and economic integration and ensure that their benefits are widely shared. Tackling challenges to the global economy continues to require cooperation and joint action across the membership.
December 1, 2017
2017 Handbook of IMF Facilities for Low-Income Countries
Description:
This Handbook provides guidance to staff on the financial facilities and non-financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), defined here as all countries eligible to obtain concessional financing from the Fund.
It updates the previous version of the Handbook that was published in February 2016 (IMF, 2016d) by incorporating modifications resulting from Board papers and related decisions since that time, including Financing for Development—Enhancing the Financial Safety Net for Developing Countries—Further Considerations (IMF, 2016c), Review of Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust – Review of Interest Rate Structure (IMF, 2016b), Eligibility to Use the Fund’s Facilities for Concessional Financing (IMF, 2017a), Large Natural Disasters—Enhancing the Financial Safety Net for Developing Countries (IMF, 2017b) and Adequacy of the Global Financial Safety Net – Proposal for a New Policy Coordination Instrument (IMF, 2017c).
Designed as a comprehensive reference tool for program work on LICs, the Handbook also refers, in summary form, to a range of relevant policies that apply more generally to IMF members. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board decisions, including the terms of the various LIC Trust Instruments that have been adopted by the Board, remain the sole legal authority on the matters covered in the Handbook.
November 22, 2017
Transmittal Policy: The Exchange of Documents Between the Fund and Other Organizations
Description:
The Fund has a long history of exchanging documents with other international organizations and currency unions. The practice of exchanging documents with individual organizations dates back to the 1940s, mostly conducted through bilateral arrangements with other international organizations and currency unions. In 1990, the Fund introduced a framework (the “Transmittal Policy”) for the transmittal of certain Board documents (relating to Article IV consultations, use of Fund resources and, later, technical assistance). The Transmittal Policy has served the institution well, but some gaps have emerged over time. Many of the current bilateral document sharing arrangements were adopted in response to individual organizations’ requests, thus document sharing arrangements have not always been applied uniformly to similar organizations or kept pace with the mandates and needs of the organizations. This has resulted in similar organizations having uneven access to Fund documents. Moreover, the Fund’s Transparency Policy has also evolved and prompt publication of most Board documents is now the norm. The proposals set forth in this paper seek to ensure a consolidated, evenhanded approach to the transmittal of Fund documents to international organizations and currency unions. In particular, this paper proposes several changes that would allow international organizations and currency unions to receive a wider range of documents. This paper also presents a proposal responding to requests by Executive Directors of European Union (EU) countries to expand access to documents and information prior to Board consideration for the European Commission (EC). Staff proposes that access be granted uniformly to the EC and other executive bodies of currency unions that have executive decision-making power over the common economic and monetary policies of currency unions. There is also an interest in more expanded sharing of Fund documents with regional financing arrangements (RFAs) in view of their importance in the Global Financial Safety Net. However, given the unique structure of RFAs and the need to develop a policy framework suited for the needs of both the Fund and RFAs, a proposal for such sharing will be put forward in a separate paper for consideration by the Board.
November 22, 2017
Use of Third-Party Indicators in Fund Reports
Description:
Fund staff use indicators developed by other organizations as input into analysis in surveillance and, to a lesser extent, in program work. While the Fund has been able to rely on data and statistics provided by member countries and compiled internally, continued efforts to foster global economic and financial stability require staff to work with indicators drawn from numerous third-party compilers. These indicators of varied qualities are used to measure concepts such as business environment, competitiveness, and quality of governance.
It is anticipated that staff will continue to draw on other institutions’ expertise and estimates. This practice is consistent with the Executive Board’s guidance in areas where internal expertise is lacking or limited. It also puts a premium on staff’s understanding of the third-party indicators (TPIs) used to add analytical value, avoid flawed conclusions and presentation, and support traction with the membership.
This paper outlines a framework to promote best practice with respect to use of TPIs in Fund reports. The framework will apply to all documents that are subject to the Fund’s Transparency Policy. Staff are encouraged to follow similar guidelines for other Fund documents. It draws on lessons from the current practice in the Fund and other selected international organizations (IOs), and insights from the application of an adapted data quality assessment framework (DQAF) to a subset of TPIs commonly used by Fund staff. Common good practices across IOs include the emphasis on staff judgment, review, and consultation with stakeholders.
October 31, 2017
Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice: Revisiting the 2007 IEO Evaluation
Description: I would like to thank the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) for preparing this informative and timely report, which provides an update on the IMF’s progress in its approach to exchange rate policy advice since 2007. I am pleased with its main finding that the IMF has substantially overhauled its approach to exchange rate policy advice, and concur that some issues need our continued attention. I would like to note that management and staff remain fully committed to the role of the External Sector Report (ESR) in Fund surveillance.
October 26, 2017
Safeguards Assessments - 2017 Update
Description:
The volume of safeguards activity remained consistent with recent years. 21 assessments were completed during the update period (September 2015-April 2017) and five were in progress at the end of the period. Activity continues to average around 13 assessments per year. While the number of central banks under monitoring decreased slightly from 67 to 63, some monitoring cases required intense engagement due to safeguards challenges that emerged. These related to forensic investigations, governance reforms, and a deterioration in safeguards frameworks of central banks facing difficult external conditions.
October 12, 2017
A Window of Opportunity: The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda
Description:
The global recovery continues. Although it is not yet complete, the more favorable conjuncture
offers an opportunity to tackle key policy challenges to stave off medium-term downside risks,
rebuild buffers, and raise potential output. Countries should undertake well-sequenced reforms to
increase productivity, improve governance, and reduce policy uncertainty and future risks. Reforms
should also aim to harness the benefits of technology and economic integration and ensure that
they are widely shared. Tackling challenges to the global economy continues to require cooperation
and joint action across the membership. The Fund will assist members through tailored policy
advice and capacity development, and stands ready to provide financial assistance to support
adjustment programs.