Policy Papers

June 15, 2018

Assessing Fiscal Space: An Update and Stocktaking

Description: This paper reviews the experience with the fiscal space assessment framework that was piloted during 2017–18. In 2016, staff proposed an operational definition of fiscal space and a new four-stage framework for its assessment. These were discussed informally by the Board in June, and a Board paper “Assessing Fiscal Space: An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations” incorporating Directors’ views was published in December. Fiscal space was narrowly defined as the room for undertaking discretionary fiscal policy relative to existing plans without endangering market access and debt sustainability. The framework was developed in response to the need to provide a more systematic approach to assessing fiscal space in the Fund’s surveillance. It was designed as a tool to inform the availability of fiscal space over a 3 to 4 year horizon for discretionary action, as opposed to the optimality of its use. Indeed, it was stressed that the availability of space does not necessarily mean that it should be used or should not be further expanded. The framework was piloted in the Article IV consultations of 34 advanced economies and emerging markets, comprising almost 80 percent of global GDP in PPP terms.

June 13, 2018

How to Operationalize Inequality Issues in Country Work

Description: Economic inclusion is the broad sharing of the benefits of, and the opportunities to participate in, economic growth. It embodies equitable outcomes related to financial well-being as well as opportunities in access to markets and resources, and protects the vulnerable.

Economic inclusion is a high priority issue for the IMF. High inequality is negatively associated with macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth—core to the Fund’s mandate in promoting systemic, balance of payments, and domestic stability. Some macroeconomic policies and reforms may have adverse distributional implications, which in turn can undermine public support for reforms. And, interest in distributional issues and inequality has grown among the membership, increasing the demand for the Fund to work in these areas. While the IMF has long recognized the importance of inequality issues, it has adopted in the recent years a more systematic and structured approach. In this regard, a pilot initiative on inequality was launched in 2015, with the third wave of countries currently participating. Once this wave is concluded, staff proposes to incorporate the analysis of inequality-related issues into broader country work where relevant.

This note provides an overview of good practices and resources available to staff. The note is consistent with the 2015 Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations and draws also on the 2013 Guidance Note on Jobs and Growth Issues in Surveillance and Program Work. It provides examples of good practices with respect to coverage of inequality-related issues in country reports and lays out the resources available to country teams, both with respect to existing analytical work as well as the availability of data and tools.

Coverage of inequality issues in staff reports should be selective and calibrated to the degree of macroeconomic significance. All teams should consider whether inequality issues are relevant, taking into account also the authorities’ priorities, but with no presumption that inequality will be covered everywhere or every year and in-depth coverage anticipated in only a limited number of cases any year. Staff should point to macroeconomic significance where it exists, with analysis focused on aspects with economic implications and specific policy advice limited to areas where there is Fund expertise.

June 13, 2018

How to Operationalize Gender Issues in Country Work

Description: Reducing gender gaps can have important economic benefits. Gender gaps remain significant on a global scale, both with respect to opportunities and outcomes. For example, gender-based legal restrictions in many parts of the world, as well as barriers in access to education, healthcare, and financial services, prevent women from fully participating in the economy. In turn, labor force participation rates are lower among women than men. Gender equality can play an important role in promoting economic stability by boosting economic productivity and growth, enhancing economic resilience, and reducing income inequality.

The Fund has begun operationalizing gender issues in its work. Staff has contributed to the economic literature through country-level and cross-country analytical studies, confirming the macro-criticality of gender issues in a broad set of circumstances. Gender issues are also increasingly becoming an integral part of capacity development though technical assistance and training. And in country work, two waves of gender pilots have been completed—encompassing both surveillance and Fund-supported programs and covering all regions of the world and all levels of income—and a third wave is under way.

Coverage of gender issues in staff reports should be selective and calibrated to the degree of macroeconomic significance. All teams should consider whether gender issues are relevant, taking into account also the authorities’ priorities, but with no presumption that gender issues will be covered everywhere or every year and with in-depth coverage anticipated in only a limited number of cases any year. Staff should point to macroeconomic significance where it exists, with analysis focused on aspects with economic implications and specific policy advice limited to areas where there is Fund expertise. Where relevant, country teams should leverage external expertise.

This note provides an overview of good practices and resources available to staff. The note is consistent with the 2015 Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations and draws also on the 2013 Guidance Note on Jobs and Growth Issues in Surveillance and Program Work. It provides examples of good practice with respect to coverage of gender issues in country reports and lays out the resources available to country teams, both with respect to existing analytical work as well as the availability of data and tools.

June 13, 2018

Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2018 and FY 2019-20

Description: The Fund’s total net income for FY 2018 is projected at about SDR 0.7 billion, broadly in line with the April 2017 estimate. The projections for total lending income are broadly unchanged. Most sources of lending income are lower, reflecting a lower level of credit outstanding as a result of advance repurchases and delayed disbursements. However, projected commitment fee income is higher following the early cancellation of a large FCL arrangement in November 2017.

The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 0.7 billion for FY 2018 (excluding projected income of the gold sales profits-funded Endowment Subaccount) be placed to the special and general reserve. After the placement of GRA FY 2018 net income to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 17.4 billion at the end of FY 2018. The paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase in the Fund’s reserves from the GRA to the Investment Account. The paper also revisits options for the allocation of net income between the special and general reserve, and proposes that net income be allocated equally between the special and general reserve.

In line with the recent Board discussion of a framework for guiding future payouts from the Endowment Subaccount, the paper presents a detailed proposal, which includes delaying payouts for three years to protect the real value of the Endowment.

The paper also recommends that the margin for the rate of charge for the period FY 2019–2020 be kept unchanged at 100 basis points. The margin will again be set under the exceptional circumstances clause, as non-lending income continues to be constrained by the low interest rate environment and lending income will be used to finance a portion of the Fund’s non-lending activities.

The projections for FY 2019 and FY 2020 point to a net income position of SDR 0.4 billion and SDR 1 billion, respectively. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions.

May 31, 2018

Pursuing Women's Economic Empowerment

Description: The economic and social imperative for women’s economic empowerment is clear. Greater gender equality boosts economic growth and leads to better development outcomes. It contributes to reducing income inequality and boosting economic diversification and, in turn, supports economic resilience. Gender equality is one of the 17 global UN Sustainable Development Goals, which provide a roadmap for ending poverty, protecting the planet, and ensuring that all people enjoy peace and prosperity.

The G7 has emphasized the need for closing the gender gap. The Taormina Leaders’ Summit in 2017 renewed the emphasis on promoting women’s empowerment, which the leaders see as a crucial contribution to promoting sustainable development. In this regard, leaders committed to mainstreaming gender equality into all their policies. This is carried forward by Canada’s G7 Presidency.

With growing recognition that gender equality promotes economic stability and growth, the IMF has scaled up its work in this area and is committed to continue these efforts. Work by the IMF will focus on (i) deepening its understanding of the economic benefits of women’s empowerment, both in the labor market and through more equal opportunities for boys and girls, also against the background of persistent megatrends, including in an environment of rapid technological change; (ii) integrating the analysis into Fund policy dialogue with member countries; (iii) providing customized assistance, workshops, and peer-learning courses in areas such as gender budgeting; and (iv) expanding collaboration with other international institutions on the subject to benefit from complementary areas of expertise.

May 24, 2018

The Core Principles for Islamic Finance Regulations and Assessment Methodology

Description: This paper provides a proposal to incorporate the Core Principles for Islamic Finance Regulation (Banking Sector) (CPIFR) issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), as part of the standards used in assessing the banking regulatory and supervisory regimes of relevant member jurisdictions under the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and the Reports on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs). The CPIFR largely reflects the order of the Basel Core Principles on Effective Banking Supervision (BCP), with five additional principles that are specific to Islamic banking operations. Thus, for countries that have systemically significant Islamic banking sector, the assessment of the banking regulation and supervision regime of the jurisdiction would be against the CPIFR (for fully Islamic banking systems) or BCP and the five additional core principles under the CPIFR (for dual banking systems). The Fund staff is seeking the endorsement of the Executive Board on this proposal.

May 11, 2018

Somalia: Currency Reform Assessment Letter for the Central Bank of Somalia

Description: This letter provides IMF staff’s assessment on the readiness of the Central Bank of Somalia (CBS) to issue a new national currency under Phase I which will be limited to exchanging the counterfeit Somali shilling notes currently in circulation with new currency. Over the past two years the IMF has provided the CBS with extensive technical assistance (TA) to support the currency reform project. All preparatory measures agreed on between the authorities and IMF staff have been implemented and IMF staff views that the CBS is ready to introduce the new national currency under Phase I. This assessment letter has been requested by the CBS with the objective to share it with donors to mobilize the needed funding for the currency reform project. It is estimated by IMF staff that this project under Phase I will cost about $41 million.

May 11, 2018

FY2019-FY2021 Medium-Term Budget

Description: The FY 19 budget proposal is formulated against the backdrop of a strengthening global recovery and broadly balanced near term risks. The budget reflects a solid income position and a multi-year strategic agenda—operationalized in the Global Policy Agenda (GPA) and Board Work Program—to help members take advantage of the current cyclical upswing to bolster growth, harness the benefits of technology for all, while promoting resilience and responding swiftly to requests for program support.

The net administrative budget for FY 19 remains unchanged in real terms, save for the extra customary travel allocation for Annual Meetings held abroad. This represents the seventh year in a row of flat real budget envelopes (excluding the ½ percentage point security related increase in FY 17). The proposal reflects reallocations of some 2½ percent of the net budget. As the expected FY 18 outturn is just below the approved budget, carry-forward resources equivalent to 4 percent of the net budget from earlier years would still be available. Of these, roughly one half ($19 million) has been allocated upfront in the FY 19 budget process.

The impact of savings and demands on the Fund’s overall output structure is modest. Fund-financed structural resources are projected to shift slightly from global oversight towards multilateral surveillance as a net result of reallocations from completed to new policy work and reviews, in line with the Board Work Program. Fund-financed country work—bilateral surveillance, lending and capacity development—falls somewhat. Externally financed capacity development (CD) is expected to grow further. Support and governance areas continue to experience structural pressures.

The same level of real resources is assumed over the medium-term. However, with medium-term risks to the economic outlook still on the downside, were upside spending pressures to emerge, the flat real budget stance would require a continued ability to find offsetting savings to meet emerging and unforeseen priorities.
The capital budget envelope for FY 19 is broadly unchanged from the assumptions in the FY 18–20 Medium-Term Budget. The amounts for the outer years are indicative.

May 10, 2018

Public Investment Management Assessment - Review and Update

Description:

Public Investment Management Assessments (PIMAs) are the IMF‘s key tool for assessing infrastructure governance over the full investment cycle and supporting economic institution building in this area. The PIMA framework was first introduced in the 2015 Board Paper on “Making Public Investment More Efficient,” as part of the IMF’s Infrastructure Policy Support Initiative (IPSI). A key motivation for its development has been that strong infrastructure governance is critical for public investment to spur economic growth. PIMAs offer rigorous assessment of infrastructure governance, that is, the key public investment management (PIM) institutions and processes of a country.

On the basis of the PIMAs conducted to date, this paper summarizes the lessons learned and updates the assessment framework itself. PIMAs summarize the strengths and weaknesses of country public investment processes, and set out a prioritized and sequenced reform action plan. The PIMA framework has been well-received by member countries, with over 30 PIMAs conducted to date (mainly in emerging markets (EMs) and low income developing countries (LIDCs), and a pipeline of new requests in place; eight PIMAs have been or are about to be published. The PIMAs conducted show that there is much room for strengthening PIM, with weaknesses spread across the investment cycle. The results and recommendations of several PIMAs have been used in IMF lending, surveillance, and capacity development (CD) work, and have improved support and coordination among CD providers.

While leaving the structure of the 2015 framework unchanged, the revised PIMA framework highlights some critical governance aspects more prominently. In particular, it brings out more fully some key aspects of maintenance, procurement, independent review of projects, and the enabling environment (e.g., adequacy of the legal framework, information systems, and staff capacity). Yet, the revised PIMA retains the key features of the 2015 framework, including the three-phase structure (planning, allocation, and implementation) with five institutions assigned to each phase, three dimensions under each institution, and three possible scores under each dimension (i.e., not/partially/fully met). The revision has benefitted from extensive stakeholder feedback, including from IMF teams, World Bank staff, and country authorities. 

April 30, 2018

The IMF’s Annual Macroprudential Policy Survey— Objectives, Design, and Country Responses

Description: As use of macroprudential policy tools is growing, the IMF has initiated an annual survey on macroprudential policy with its membership. The resulting new database provides information on policy measures taken by IMF member countries as well as on the institutional arrangements in place to support macroprudential policy. This paper provides detail on the design of the survey and a description of the results from the first edition of the survey, based on responses received from 141 jurisdictions. It reviews institutional arrangements in place across the membership, provides an initial description of the types of measures reported across regions, and describes recent changes in macroprudential policy settings reported by member countries.