Policy Papers
2021
March 5, 2021
Fifteenth General Review of Quotas—Additional Considerations and Data Update
Description: This paper recaps the findings of previous staff work on the adequacy of Fund resources and tests the robustness of the earlier analysis. It also updates the quota database by one year through 2016 and the previous illustrative simulations of possible reforms of the quota formula. Finally, the paper explores possible approaches to distributing a quota increase, including earlier illustrative simulations of distributions based primarily on the quota formula and alternative approaches that could combine a limited further reform of the formula in areas where there is broad support with additional elements outside the formula to help build consensus.
March 5, 2021
Progress on the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas—Report of the Executive Board to the Board of Governors (April 2018)
Description: Following the guidance on the Board of Governors Resolution No. 72-1 (December 2016), on April 3, 2018, the Executive Board discussed and adopted its second semi-annual report on progress on the Fifteenth Review. The report covered issues relating to both the adequacy of Fund resources and the quota formula and realigning quota shares, discussed in an informal meeting on February 2, 2018 and building on the earlier discussions in the fall of 2017.
March 5, 2021
Progress on the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas—Report of the Executive Board to the Board of Governors (September 2018)
Description: Following the guidance on the Board of Governors Resolution No. 72-1 (December 2016), on September 21, 2018, the Executive Board discussed and adopted its third semi-annual report on progress on the Fifteenth Review. The report covered additional issues relating to both the adequacy of Fund resources and the quota formula and realigning quota shares, discussed in an informal meeting on July 30, 2018.
March 5, 2021
Progress on the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas—Report of the Executive Board to the Board of Governors (April 2019)
Description: Following the guidance on the Board of Governors Resolution No. 72-1 (December 2016), on April 3, 2019, the Executive Board discussed and adopted its fourth semi-annual report on progress on the Fifteenth Review. The report described that it had become evident that it would not be possible to secure the required support for a quota increase under the Fifteenth Review.
March 5, 2021
Fifteenth General Review of Quotas—Quota Formula and Realigning Shares
Description: This paper provides background for an initial discussion under the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas (15th Review) in line with the work plan agreed by the Executive Board. It discusses issues related to further reforms of the quota formula and realigning quota shares, based on updated quota data through 2015. A companion paper, to be discussed separately, will address issues related to the size of the Fund and mix of quota and borrowed resources. Both these papers seek to facilitate initial discussions on some of the key issues for the 15th Review. No proposals are made at this stage, recognizing that further deliberations will be needed before the issues under discussion can begin to be narrowed down.
March 5, 2021
Adequacy of Fund Resources—Further Considerations
Description: This paper is part of the workplan on the 15th General Review of Quotas (15th Review). The paper provides a two-pillar framework for assessing the adequacy of Fund resources, building on the staff paper discussed by the Board in March 2016. The second pillar of the framework is qualitative in nature. The paper also provides information to support a discussion on the mix of Fund resources.
March 5, 2021
Fifteenth General Review of Quotas—Further Considerations
Description: The paper revisits the two-pillar framework for assessing the adequacy of Fund resources. Responding to Directors suggestions, the quantitative pillar is updated to include alternative assumptions and to provide a longer-term perspective on likely resource needs. While quantitative estimates are generally somewhat lower after factoring in the alternative assumptions, these reductions are more than outweighed when the analysis is extended through the middle of the next decade, recognizing that the outcome of the 15th Review will likely determine permanent Fund resources through at least the middle of the next decade. The updated qualitative pillar analysis highlights reforms since the global financial crisis and discusses uncertainties in the global environment. It also provides an assessment of the general impact of the various qualitative considerations. Taken together, the two pillars continue to make a case for at least maintaining existing Fund resources. Against this background, the simulations in the paper cover three illustrative sizes for quota increases (50, 75, and 100 percent), centered on broadly maintaining Fund resources, assuming the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) is maintained at its current level and Bilateral Borrowing Agreements (BBAs) expire.
March 5, 2021
2019 Quota Data Update
Description: The paper presents summary results for the updated data set, with country-by-country details provided in Appendix I. In terms of broad country groups, the results of the data update are broadly consistent with trends observed in previous updates. The aggregate share of Emerging Market and Developing Countries (EMDCs) increased by 0.3 pp, to 50.0 percent, following a small decline in the EMDCs’ share recorded in the 2018 data update. The rising EMDC share reflected again foremost an increase for Asia. Most advanced economies recorded a small decrease in their calculated quota share using the current quota formula.
March 5, 2021
2020 Quota Data Update
Description: This paper presents the annual update of the quota database and extends the database by one year through 2018. The paper provides an overview of the data and of the methodology and covers the quota formula variables and calculated quota shares based on the current quota formula.
March 5, 2021
Adequacy of Fund Resources – Preliminary Considerations
Description: This paper provides background for initial considerations on the appropriate size of the Fund’s overall lending capacity over the medium term. The paper reviews developments in the demand for Fund resources during the global crisis. The paper also argues that the global economy is changing in fundamental ways, with implications for the size of the Fund. Against this background, the analysis suggests that the current overall lending capacity of the Fund should be seen as a minimum. Additional resources would be needed if the Fund were to introduce changes to its lending framework. While the financing structure of the Fund should be largely quota-based, staff sees a strong case for continuing to backstop quota resources with a standing borrowing facility. Maintaining the Fund’s current overall lending capacity would require swift action by the membership.