IMF Policy Discussion Papers
2002
December 1, 2002
Poverty and Social Impact Analysis in PRGF-Supported Programs
Description: This paper aims to inform on the status of Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) in IMF-supported programs, detailing the results presented in the recent review of PRGF-supported programs. The review showed that more needs to be done, both in undertaking PSIA when necessary, and in reporting the policy tradeoffs in program documents. Policy design should be continuously informed by the results of PSIA.
December 1, 2002
Cross-Border Issues in Energy Trade in the CIS Countries
Description: This paper explores from a regional perspective the distorted nature of trade in energy products within the CIS countries. The persistence of pricing distortions, barter arrangements, and discriminatory access to pipelines, as well as failure to honor contracts, has disrupted and distorted energy exports to non-CIS countries, undermined energy sector reforms, and distorted investment decisions. The paper focuses on cross-border issues as an integral component of the wider problem of inefficient energy use within the CIS. Several policy recommendations are proposed, including measures to foster greater competition, reduce state involvement, and promote regional cooperation.
September 1, 2002
Reviving the Case for GDP-Indexed Bonds
Description: This paper seeks to revive the case for countries to self-insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing GDP-indexed bonds. We simulate the effects of GDP-indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could substantially reduce the likelihood that debt/GDP paths become explosive. The insurance premium would likely be small, because cross-country comovement of GDP growth rates is low and cross-country GDP growth risk is thus largely diversifiable for an investor holding a portfolio of GDP-indexed bonds. Potential obstacles to the emergence of a market for these bonds include the verifiability of GDP data, the trade-off between insurance and moral hazard, and the need for liquidity. The paper discusses institutional fixes and suggests an approach to attempting to start up a market.
July 1, 2002
The Role of Monthly Economic Statistical Bulletins
Description: Monthly economic statistical bulletins issued by central banks and national statistical offices, the focus of this study, are well established in countries with advanced statistical systems. Such bulletins present a synopsis of current economic trends and cater to a broad group of users involved in policy, markets, media, and research. Compendium bulletins serve as a reference point, contribute to public economic knowledge and transparency, and can add to international visibility. The authors find that only about half of developing countries produce monthly bulletins. Based on experience in industrial countries and a survey of 22 successful bulletins from developing countries, this paper highlights the role of such bulletins and discusses selected aspects of their content, production, and dissemination.
July 1, 2002
Considering the IMF's Perspective on a "Sound Fiscal Policy"
Description: This paper provides a perspective on how the IMF assesses a “sound fiscal policy,” focusing principally on industrial and emerging market economies. It observes six central criteria: the short-term fiscal policy stance, with greater emphasis on automatic stabilizers than discretionary fiscal policy; relevance of medium- and sometimes long-term issues; fiscal sustainability; capacity for aggregate fiscal policy implementation (including political economy factors); structural content of fiscal policy (tax efficiency and public expenditure quality); and institutional, governance, and process issues associated with budget implementation and revenue collection. Greater emphasis could be placed on an adequate margin to deal with uncertain long-term challenges.
May 1, 2002
Privatization in Ukraine: Challenges of Assessment and Coverage in Fund Conditionality
Description: The paper examines the recent privatization experience in Ukraine in the context of the streamlining of Fund structural conditionality. A particular focus is the shift from privatization-related conditionality based on quantitative targets to conditionality aimed at strengthening privatization procedures. The paper examines how this shift was managed in Ukraine and discusses the challenges of applying conditionality to privatization procedures and the implications for country ownership.
March 1, 2002
Challenges in Expanding Development Assistance
Description: This paper highlights the macro and microeconomic challenges associated with success of the effort to mobilize 0.7 percent of GNP for official development assistance (ODA). To promote achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, enhanced ODA must be as productive as possible. In weighing the distribution of enhanced ODA among countries, the paper emphasizes the need to limit potentially adverse “real transfer effects.” It recommends a multi-pronged approach to ODA that includes, inter alia, in addition to direct bilateral transfers, enhanced use of trust funds and the financing of global public goods.
March 1, 2002
Issues in Electronic Banking: An Overview
Description: Using electronic delivery channels for banking services and products has become increasingly popular in recent years. Electronic banking makes it possible to offer banking services around the world 24 hours a day. The dependence on technology for providing the services with the necessary security, and the cross-border nature of transactions, involve additional risks for banks and new challenges for banking regulators and supervisors. This paper provides an overview of some of the issues resulting from the development of electronic banking and how they are currently being addressed by regulatory and supervisory authorities.
March 1, 2002
The New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Setting the Incentives Right
Description: The paper discusses key incentive-related issues of the sovereign debt restructuring mechanism recently outlined by the IMF First Deputy Managing Director. The structure of incentives in the mechanism should be consistent with the principle of favoring market-oriented, voluntary solutions to financial crises. The paper frames the mechanism in the context of involving the private sector in financial crisis resolution (PSI), and identifies the conditions for setting up an appropriate incentive structure. The paper explores issues relating to the functioning of the mechanism, including access policy on IMF resources; the power to activate the mechanism; its relation with intermediate PSI instruments; and its impact on investment in emerging markets.
February 1, 2002
Foreign Direct Investment in China: Some Lessons for Other Countries
Description: China's increasing openness to foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed importantly to its exceptional growth performance. This paper examines China's experience with FDI and identifies some lessons for other countries. Most of the factors explaining China's success have also been important in attracting FDI to other countries: market size, labor costs, quality of infrastructure, and government policies. FDI has contributed to higher investment and productivity growth, and has created jobs and a dynamic export sector. China's success, however, did not come without some pitfalls: an increasingly complex tax incentive system and growing regional income disparities. Accession to the WTO should broaden China's "opening up" policies and continue FDI's contributions to China's economy in the future.