Country Reports
2017
November 17, 2017
Zambia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper discusses the findings of the assessment of the financial system in Zambia. Nonperforming loans have risen and private sector credit growth has turned negative, owing to the severe pressures of 2015–16. The pressures included slower economic growth, sharply lower copper prices, electricity shortages, very tight monetary policy, and mounting fiscal arrears and severe fiscal funding pressures. Looking ahead, the financial system faces considerable risks, owing to high dependence on copper exports, rising public debt and funding pressures, and an uncertain monetary policy regime. A sharper-than-expected global slowdown may lead to copper price declines and additional pressures on government finance and the exchange rate. A lack of fiscal adjustment may worsen government payments arrears, further impacting asset quality.
November 17, 2017
Sweden: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the high household savings in Sweden. Preliminary evidence suggests that the large increase in savings after the financial crisis may reflect the rising cost of elder care. Econometric analysis appears to confirm anecdotal explanations that extended life expectancy and a preference for higher-quality residential care have contributed to higher savings. Further analysis using more granular data is needed to test alternative hypotheses for the rise in household savings. Anecdotal reports also indicate that parental assistance in young people’s home purchases could be behind the increased saving and serves as an additional bequest motive. Investigating this possibility would benefit significantly from household level data.
November 13, 2017
Mexico: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the Mexican economy’s resilience in the face of a complex external environment. Output has continued to grow at a moderate pace while inflation has temporarily risen above the central bank’s target. The flexible exchange rate is playing a key role in helping the economy adjust to external shocks. The economy is projected to grow by 2.1 percent in 2017. Private consumption remains the main driver of activity, supported by manufacturing exports, while investment has remained weak amid uncertainty about Mexico’s future trade relationship with the United States. Growth is expected to slow slightly in 2018 before picking up speed as the uncertainty is resolved.
November 13, 2017
Mexico: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the economic impact of Mexico’s structural reforms. The Mexican authorities have been implementing an ambitious structural reform agenda in a coordinated effort to lift productivity growth. The reforms have targeted a broad range of industries; dissolved state monopolies; and addressed labor market, education, and governance shortcomings. The analysis suggests that external headwinds have masked evidence that the reforms are achieving many of the intended transformations in the targeted sectors. Priority should go to reforms targeting the rule of law and attendant improvements in security and reduction of corruption. These will not only improve the business environment but are key to the success of existing reform efforts.
November 13, 2017
Spain: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Supervision of Spanish Banks
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for Spain in the area of banking supervision. Banking regulation and supervision of Spanish banks have improved considerably since the 2012 FSAP. Swift and determined action addressed the major weaknesses that led to the accumulation of imbalances in the banking system in the period leading to the crisis. Further reforms are needed because the transformation of the banking supervision function is far from complete. Actions to address misclassification and underprovisioning of assets have shown very good progress, but oversight must continue.
November 13, 2017
Spain: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Interconnectedness and Spillover Analysis in Spain’s Financial System
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program about interconnectedness and spillover in Spain’s financial system. Financial intermediaries in Spain are interconnected through conglomerate ownership, common exposures, and inter-sectoral claims. The main source of cross-sectoral connectedness appears to be insurance companies’ exposures to banks, while exposures of banks to insurers or to mutual funds appear limited at present. Empirical analysis using both exposure and market data suggest strong cross-border interconnectedness. Contagion within the domestic interbank market appears to be limited at present. There are also strong cross-sectoral linkages between banks and other parts of the financial system in Spain, but systemic risks from those linkages appear to be limited.
November 13, 2017
Spain: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Impaired Assets and Nonperforming Loans
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Spain in the areas of impaired assets and nonperforming loans (NPLs). The size of the problem assets varies significantly across banks and is concentrated in those exposed to residential mortgages and real-estate-related firms, whose NPLs represent about 57 percent of all NPLs. A tough stance on the implementation of the European Central Bank (ECB) guidance on NPLs is desirable. Ideally, in the case of Spain, the cleanup should be completed before the expiration of the ECB’s long-term support. Targets to reduce problem assets should be ambitious, and failure to comply should have prudential consequences.
November 13, 2017
Spain: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Oversight Framework and Macroprudential Policy
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Spain in the areas of systemic risk oversight framework and macroprudential policy. Macroprudential oversight for banking is a shared responsibility between Banco de España (BdE) and the European Central Bank. The macroprudential policy stance appears broadly appropriate. BdE has put in place a framework for calibrating capital buffers. The countercyclical capital buffer is currently at zero given that a new financial cycle upturn has not started and a still-negative credit gap and weakly recovering housing prices. The existing macroprudential toolkit would benefit from expansion, particularly to include more effective tools to deal with risks associated with real estate exposures.
November 13, 2017
Spain: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Institutional Arrangements for Financial Sector Oversight
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Spain regarding institutional arrangements for financial sector oversight. The macroprudential policy framework for banking is now in place, although the national macroprudential authority has not been established. Banco de España is the national designated authority for exercising certain macroprudential powers and, under the Banking Union, shares macroprudential oversight with the European Central Bank, which possesses “top-up” powers. It is recommended that the macroprudential toolkit be expanded, particularly to include more effective tools to deal with risks associated with real estate exposures. Monitoring of system-wide trends also needs to be conducted with a greater focus on risks and macro-financial perspectives.
November 13, 2017
Spain: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Sector Supervision and Regulation
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Spain in the areas of insurance sector supervision and regulation. The Spanish insurance market is complex owing to the presence of large numbers of insurance groups. The supervisory culture in the Directorate General of Insurance and Pension Funds (DGSFP) appears to be reactive or compliance focused. The supervisory focus should shift toward qualitative as well as quantitative review of the insurer’s key methods and assumptions, including the proportionate verification of technical provisions and capital requirements. The DGSFP should also develop areas that are now relevant in the Solvency II framework, such as governance and risk management.