Country Reports
2017
December 13, 2017
Albania: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Albania
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Albania’s economy continues to strengthen, benefitting from rising domestic demand, large energy-related foreign direct investment (FDI), and a recovery in key European Union (EU) trading partners. The declining output gap and pass-through of higher external inflation have pushed up inflation to just under 2 percent. Short-term external vulnerabilities are limited, as the current account deficit is predominantly funded by concessional borrowing and large FDI inflows, while official foreign reserves are ample. The medium-term outlook remains favorable. GDP growth is projected to accelerate to about 4 percent, driven by continued strong domestic demand, reforms that improve the business climate, and a strengthening EU recovery.
December 13, 2017
Albania: Selected Issues
Description: This paper explores Albania’s current account (CA) deficit that improved in 2016, but remains sizable. The EBA-Lite model results indicate that the external position is moderately weaker than implied by fundamentals and desirable policy settings. Adjusting for Albania’s specific circumstances, the current account gap is estimated at -1.0 percent and the real effective exchange rate is overvalued by about 6 percent, reflecting Albania’s low national saving and large FDI inflows. Though Albania has benefitted from the recent tourism boom in the region, the outlook for exports remains challenging. Despite its cost competitiveness, exports are narrowly concentrated in a few low-value added sectors while new investments in the nonenergy tradable sector are limited. To close Albania’s competitiveness gap and strengthen its external position, the authorities should complete key infrastructure projects to reduce transportation costs and address energy sector reliability; increase domestic savings; improve governance and the rule of law; and raise labor market efficiency by reducing skills shortages.
December 13, 2017
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Islamic Republic of Mauritania
Description: This paper discusses Mauritania’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The economic outlook is positive, but debt remains a concern. Near-term prospects are promising—supported by some improvement in the terms of trade, foreign direct investment in the extractive sector, planned structural reforms, and growth-enhancing public investment. Risks are balanced: on the upside, possible development of a recently discovered off-shore gas field could be a game-changer starting in 2021. On the downside, the economy remains highly vulnerable to lower metals prices, weather-related events, and regional security developments. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the ECF arrangement.
December 11, 2017
Sudan: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sudan
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic conditions in Sudan have been challenging since the secession of South Sudan in 2011 and the loss of the bulk of oil production and exports. The authorities have implemented partial policy adjustments to help stabilize the economy and reestablish growth, most recently by allowing for greater exchange rate flexibility and reducing fuel subsidies. The current account deficit (cash basis) is expected to decline by 3.25 percentage points to 2.75 percent of GDP in 2017. Data for the first half of 2017 indicate weaker real domestic demand, partly offset by a strengthening contribution from net exports.
December 11, 2017
Sudan: Selected Issues
Description: This paper explains that in Sudan, the public information campaign should be launched as early as possible following a decision to phase out subsidies. This campaign should comprise wide-ranging consultations with all stakeholders, and should inform the public about the high costs and unequal distribution of the subsidy benefits. Cash transfers could be used to mitigate the impact of fuel subsidy removal on the lowest income groups. In the case of the removal of subsidies on fuel products, it is estimated that the cost of compensating the lowest income groups could be achieved at a cost of less than 1 percent of GDP a year. Two decades of economic sanctions led to the exit of most Correspondent Banking Relationships (CBRs) from Sudan, and weighed heavily on trade, investment, growth, and humanitarian relief. In 2017, the United States revoked trade and financial sanctions, while sanctions imposed by the UN, and other countries, including the EU, remain applicable.
December 8, 2017
Mauritius: Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the international reserve buffers have improved substantially in Mauritius. The government intends to pursue an ambitious growth strategy anchored on significant public investments in infrastructure and improvements in the business environment. Growth is projected at 3.9 percent in 2017, and about 4.0 percent over the medium term. The authorities have taken steps to mitigate financial stability risks and are well-advanced in modernizing financial sector regulation. However, the vibrant Global Business Sector faces pressure from international anti-tax avoidance initiatives. Fiscal space is limited, fiscal risks are increasing, and there are signs of building inflationary pressures.
December 8, 2017
Mauritius: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses how Mauritius is currently dealing with two separate tax transparency and anti-avoidance initiatives, one by the OECD-G20 and one by the European Union. Under the BEPS initiative, Mauritius has committed to including minimum standards and possibly other BEPS-compliant features into its domestic laws and bilateral double taxation avoidance agreements (DTAs). Mauritius has been involved in intensive DTA negotiations and re-negotiations. Sixteen DTAs have been added in the past 6 years. Arguably, even more important for investors has been the favorable tax framework offering benefits that are in part being challenged. Mauritius currently has a 15 percent corporate income tax (CIT) rate and a worldwide system that taxes foreign earnings but allows for foreign tax credits (FTCs), including the contested Deemed Foreign Tax Credit. Important macrofinancial linkages between the GBC sector and the financial sector present vulnerabilities that need to be managed carefully. The GBC sector is a major provider of inexpensive funding to banks, but by nature of the GBC investment pattern, these deposits are potentially highly volatile.
December 7, 2017
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Timor-Leste’s non-oil real GDP growth in 2016 is estimated at 5.5 percent, supported by a near doubling of government capital spending, albeit with large import leakages. Real total GDP declined by 7.9 percent in 2016, owing to a sharp fall in oil production. The overall fiscal deficit widened to 30.8 percent of GDP in 2016. Non-oil real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 3 percent in 2017, owing to lower government expenditure and the slowdown of activity owing to the delayed formation of the new government after the parliamentary elections in July. Inflationary pressures remain low, albeit with a return to positive territory with rising global food and fuel prices.
December 7, 2017
Georgia: First Review under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Georgia’s First Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). The program is on track with all end-June 2017 performance criteria and structural benchmarks met. Economic activity has strengthened on the back of stronger growth in main trading partners. Fiscal overperformance and efforts to address structural weaknesses have helped boost confidence. The economic recovery is gaining momentum, inflation is projected to decline starting in early 2018, and the external position has strengthened. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the First Review under the EFF and the modification of three quantitative PCs.
December 6, 2017
People’s Republic of China: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for People’s Republic of China
Description: This paper discusses the findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment (FSAP) for China. Since the 2011 FSAP, China’s impressive economic growth has continued, and it is now undertaking a necessary but prolonged economic and financial transformation. However, tensions have also emerged in various areas of the Chinese financial system. The monetary and fiscal policies aimed at supporting employment and growth have been expansionary in recent years. Pressures to keep nonviable firms open are strong, particularly at the local government level, where these objectives, at times, conflict with financial stability. The demand for high-yield investment products coupled with strengthening oversight of the banking sector has also led to regulatory arbitrage and the growth of increasingly complex investment vehicles.