Country Reports
2017
December 15, 2017
Cote d'Ivoire: Second Reviews under an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Côte d’Ivoire’s Second Reviews Under An Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Performance under the EFC/EFF-supported program was strong in the first half of 2017. All performance criteria and indicative targets for end-June 2017 were observed and all structural benchmarks were met. Sound policies implemented by the authorities in the context of the IMF-supported program have helped secure confidence of the international financial markets, which enabled a successful Eurobond issuance in June. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ requests for completion of the second reviews of the program supported by the ECF and EFF arrangements.
December 15, 2017
Togo: First Review under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Togo’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Program implementation under the ECF-supported program has been good. All quantitative performance criteria and prior actions were met as well as four out of five structural benchmarks. The fiscal consolidation envisaged under the ECF-supported program has begun. The primary deficit improved from an annual average of about 6 percent of GDP in 2013–16 to a surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP in the first half of 2017, due primarily to expenditure rationalization and the halting of non-orthodox financing of public investment. The IMF staff supports the completion of the first ECF review as most quantitative targets, prior actions, and structural benchmarks have been met.
December 14, 2017
Cyprus: Selected Issues
Description: This paper analyzes the economic effects of weak claims enforcement for Cyprus. Claims enforcement in Cyprus is considerably less efficient than in most European Union countries. The banking crisis, which led to a spike in the number of pending litigious civil and commercial cases, could be a factor in the low enforcement efficiency. For Cyprus, piecemeal reform of the enforcement framework may have limited success, and a wholesale review is likely needed. Adding updated components may not fit well with the underlying civil procedure. Instead a comprehensive review, with a focus on limiting case suspensions allowed under interim applications and considering an alternative compensation basis for lawyers should be considered.
December 14, 2017
Cyprus: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Cypriot economy has achieved an impressive turnaround since the 2012–13 banking crisis. GDP growth has been accelerating for three consecutive years on strong foreign demand. Rising labor demand has sharply lowered the unemployment rate to 10.3 percent as of September 2017. Emergency liquidity assistance to banks has been fully repaid. Gains in cost competitiveness and strong foreign demand have narrowed the underlying current account deficit (excluding large one-off imports). The current strong growth momentum is expected to persist for the next several years, underpinned by ongoing large construction projects and weak payment discipline.
December 14, 2017
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP of Afghanistan grew by 2.4 percent in 2016 thanks to higher agricultural output. For 2017, growth is projected at 2.5 percent and at 3 percent for 2018. This is below the rate of growth needed to reduce unemployment, and is contingent on an improvement in confidence, implementation of reforms, and continued strong donor support. Consumer price inflation remains moderate and is expected to average 6 percent in 2018. Afghanistan has also made progress in strengthening the country’s anti-corruption framework, and its efforts in antimonetary laundering and counter financing of terrorism resulted in the recent exit from the Financial Action Task Force’s monitoring process.
December 14, 2017
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Selected Issues
Description: This paper presents estimates of the fiscal revenue cost of conflict in Afghanistan, defined as the loss of government domestic revenue due to conflict. The loss of government revenue is an important component of the humanitarian costs of conflict. In Afghanistan, almost all security spending is funded by foreign grants, which will most likely be scaled back gradually in the event of peace. Hence, any fiscal peace dividend is likely to come principally from increased revenues, as reduced security spending will be mostly offset by reduced grants. Nevertheless, size and the statistical significance of the results suggest that the order of magnitude of the estimate, around $1 billion, is robust. By way of counterfactual, these results imply a sizeable potential fiscal dividend for Afghanistan should peace, or at least a significant reduction in violence, materialize. Several country-specific factors, including conflict and a landlocked geography, have held back an expansion in Afghanistan’s trade which could increase the country’s economic resilience. Improving its external connectivity is a key factor to unlocking its trade potential including leveraging its natural resources.
December 13, 2017
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries: Next Phase
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the advice provided by the IMF staff to the authorities of Uganda regarding extractive industry fiscal regimes. As Uganda’s portfolio of projects diversifies in the oil sector, the minimum take could be adjusted to allow for possible bonus bids, and for higher shares in the most successful projects. The royalty design also needs to take account of new provisions for distribution of a portion to local governments. The cost recovery limit could be set at 70 percent after deduction of royalty. In addition to work program, either a signature bonus or an upper tier of production sharing should form the bid variable in the licensing round, with all other items fixed and non-negotiable.
December 13, 2017
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Implementing Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries: Technical Notes
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the advice provided by the IMF staff to the authorities of Uganda regarding implementation of fiscal regimes for extractive industries. The report considers options on how to conduct future licensing rounds, including possible bid variables and bid evaluation methods. It provides detailed comments on the draft model Production Sharing Agreement, along with simulations of its fiscal terms. The report also explains how crude oil price into the refinery is likely to be a negotiated outcome using the pipeline tariff as a guide.
December 13, 2017
Finland: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Finland
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Finland’s economic growth has picked up considerably, broadening to exports and equipment investment, and the current account is back to surplus. The economic recovery is expected to remain strong in the near term, but potential growth is constrained by labor market rigidities and aging. The IMF projects growth of 2.8 percent in 2017 and 2.3 percent in 2018. Better-than-expected fiscal outcomes in 2016 are projected to continue in 2017, but the public finances face long-term challenges from a declining working age population and escalating age-related spending. Avoiding a procyclical fiscal stance would help rebuild buffers over the medium term.
December 13, 2017
Finland: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses Finland’s public sector balance sheet. The public sector balance sheet approach expands analysis of public finances beyond government debt to also include government assets, public corporations, and pension liabilities. For Finland, it shows that static public sector net worth is negative at some 160 percent of GDP. This implies that Finland’s future fiscal balances and policies will have to be sufficiently strong to compensate, and also to address future spending pressures from rising health and long-term care. The intertemporal balance sheet shows that Finland’s current medium-term fiscal framework meets this criterion—but only if health and social services reform achieves the targeted savings in public spending during the 2020s. In light of numerous risks it would be prudent to use the present economic upswing to make early headway in rebuilding buffers. Finland has a track record of prudent fiscal policy. During good economic times, the authorities have run sizable fiscal surpluses.