Country Reports
2017
December 21, 2017
Mongolia: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia
Description: This paper discusses Mongolia’s First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility. Performance under the program thus far has been strong. Growth in 2017 is projected to reach 3.3 percent, considerably better than forecasted at the time of program approval. The combination of strong policy implementation and a supportive external environment has helped the authorities over-perform on all of the quantitative targets under the program. Performance on structural reforms has also been strong, notwithstanding the delays owing to the change in government in September 2017.
December 21, 2017
Republic of Moldova: Article IV Consultation and Second Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Moldova is expected to be about 3 percent in 2018. Inflation is forecast to return to target in 2018, following a pickup in 2017. The banking sector has been stable, the fiscal performance has improved and Moldova’s external position has strengthened. The outlook, however, is still subject to substantial risks. The program is broadly on track, but continued reform efforts are needed to accelerate growth and improve living standards. Important progress has been made toward cleansing the financial sector, though with delay, including by strengthening supervisory and regulatory frameworks and increasing management and ownership transparency.
December 21, 2017
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
Description: This paper highlights the case of Moldova including public investment, efficiency, and growth. The scale up of public investment in Moldova should account for absorption capacity constraints and high reliance on external financing, to ensure a positive impact on growth. It should also be accompanied by efforts to build capacity and strengthen institutions. Public investment in Moldova relies significantly on external loans and grants to finance capital spending. The share of foreign financing varies across sectors, with agriculture and health relying significantly on donor support and education financed mostly domestically. Critical infrastructure needs in Moldova broadly correspond to the priority sectors identified in the National Development Strategy Moldova 2020: energy, transport, agriculture, health, and education. In general, infrastructure in Moldova ranks better regarding coverage than quality. Moldova has a relatively high index of public investment efficiency; nonetheless there are a number of dimensions to improve investment process.
December 21, 2017
Republic of Serbia: Eighth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
Description: This paper discusses Serbia’s Eighth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement. Notwithstanding some temporary supply shocks, economic activity remains robust, supported by recovery of private consumption and strong foreign direct investment. Significant fiscal over-performance has continued and efforts to address structural weaknesses have been accelerated. This, along with a healthy credit recovery on the back of substantial monetary policy easing, has helped support growth, while low inflation has reinforced recovery in real incomes. Continuing broader structural reforms are needed to improve the business climate and support Serbia’s medium-term growth.
December 21, 2017
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in St. Vincent and the Grenadines in 2017 is expected to remain relatively flat. The current account deficit is expected to narrow reflecting additional profit repatriation by telecommunication companies. The domestic banking system remains stable, but credit to the private sector has been flat. The fiscal situation is projected to worsen substantially in 2017 owing to a projected decline in tax revenue after exceptional receipts in 2016 and higher outlays for transfers, subsidies and public investment. Growth is expected to pick up to 2.1 percent in 2018 and reach its potential over the medium-term.
December 20, 2017
Dominica: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Dominica’s recovery from Tropical Storm Erika (August 2015) has been slower than anticipated, with output growth of 1 percent in 2016, dragged down by a storm-related decline in manufacturing. Moreover, capacity constraints and unfavorable weather slowed public investment more than anticipated. Despite ample liquidity, bank credit to the private sector remains weak, although this is in part relieved by growing lending by credit unions. Growth is projected to accelerate to above 3 percent in 2017–18 on the back of a pickup in public investment and several large-scale private projects with citizenship-by-investment and grant financing.
December 20, 2017
Dominica: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the optimal management of Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) program revenues in Dominica. Dominica’s CBI inflows have reached near 10 percent of GDP, increasing the country’s reliance on these revenues. It is argued that given their volatile and unpredictable nature, CBI revenues should be used prudently. Their use should be mindful of the chances of a sudden stop in these flows. It is therefore essential to prioritize investment, debt reduction, and saving in lieu of current expenditure, which is typically more difficult to reverse. Simulation analysis based on fiscal multipliers indicate that such combination of policies would boost GDP and help reach the regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP by 2030 as committed by the government.
December 20, 2017
Niger: First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Niger’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. Despite security challenges and unfavorable commodity prices, economic performance of Niger has been satisfactory against the backdrop of a good crop season, with real GDP growing by 5 percent in 2016 while inflation remained contained at 0.2 percent. Growth is expected to reach 5.2 percent in 2017, mainly on the back of strengthening hydrocarbon and services sectors, and robust credit growth. The current account deficit will likely decline to 13.4 percent of GDP, reflecting rising exports of oil products, a rebound in uranium exports, and the winding down of import-intensive infrastructure projects.
December 19, 2017
Guinea: Economic Development Documents
Description: This paper discusses Guinea’s 2016–20 National Economic and Social Development Plan (PNDES). The PNDES represents the second generation of planning under the Third Republic, after the 2011–15 Five-Year Plan. Through the 2016–20 PNDES, the authorities intend to address the various development challenges posed by the socioeconomic and environmental situation while ensuring post-Ebola public health surveillance and alignment with international development agendas. The principal beneficiaries of the PNDES are the Guinean populations, but particularly poor and vulnerable groups, the government itself, the private sector, and the regions, including urban and rural areas.
December 19, 2017
Guinea: Request For A Three-Year Arrangement Under The Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
Description: This paper discusses Guinea’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The Guinean economy has rebounded from the adverse impact of the Ebola epidemic, and growth is expected to continue to be sustained supported by buoyant mining activity and the scaling-up of infrastructure investments. The three-year ECF arrangement will help Guinea address a protracted balance of payment need and implement economic policies and reforms to foster higher and broad-based growth. The program will also play a catalytic role in mobilizing donor financing, notably from the World Bank and the European Union.